by Marlin Bressi

Created on: November 06, 2008   Last Updated: November 25, 2008

Politics, much like the music industry, is full of one-hit wonders. Brazenly, someone bursts onto the politcal scene and is hailed by critics and pundits as the future of a political party. This political prodigy, perhaps a Congressional wunderkind or a gubernatorial upstart, makes headlines and guest appearances on major networks. Perhaps this rising political star sits down in front of the cameras to hobnob with the likes of Katie Couric or David Letterman, before heading over to Rockefeller Center to spoof themselves in a Saturday Night Live skit.

Much like a pop star who oversaturates the radio waves with a catchy Top 40 ditty, this political protege eventually fades into obscurity, labeled as a has-been, a once-marketable commodity who has exceeded popular opinion's sell-by date. Quite simply, they become stricken with Dukakis Syndrome.

Will Alaskan governor Sarah Palin suffer the same fate? After rising from relative obscurity to be named John McCain's running mate, it would seem that for Palin there is nowhere to go but up. After all, the 44-year-old former mayor of Wasilla became a media sensation in an election year laden with sensationalism, carving out a niche for herself along with political firebrand Barack Obama. Surely a politician savvy and shrewd enough to steal some of the spotlight from Obama must have a bright future in Washington, right?

Unfortunately, history is not on the side of Sarah Palin. Unlike former running mates such as Al Gore, John Edwards, or Joe Lieberman, Palin does not have the experience necessary for a presidential run in 2012. Her past achievements include being a one-term governor of America's least-populated state, and the mayor of a town where the human population is outnumbered by polar bears and moose.

The sad reality for Palin is that she was picked by the McCain camp not for her political ambition, experience, or achievements, but as a way to win over disenfranchised Hillary Clinton supporters. Palin's appearance on the 2008 Republican ticket was nothing more than a calculated move to gain the all-important independent vote.

For Palin to become a frontrunner in the 2012 presidential elections, she must find a way to keep her name in the spotlight. This means leaving Alaska and becoming a fixture in Washington. Unfortunately, with Democrats holding majorities in the House and Senate and an incoming Democratic president, this scenario is as far away from reality as Wasilla is to Capitol Hill.

Had John McCain been successful in this past election and Palin became the Vice President of the United States, her chances as a frontrunner in the 2012 election still would be shaky at best. Not since 1984 has the Republican party had a vice presidential candidate who would ascend to the White House, when George H.W. Bush attained that distinction in 1988. Before that, the last person to accomplish this feat was Richard Nixon, who served as Dwight Eisenhower's running mate in both 1952 and 1956. Even then, Nixon didn't win the presidency until 1968.

If only Sarah Palin's political journey taken her from the Governor's Mansion to the U.S. Senate instead, perhaps holding the title currently held by beleaguered G.O.P. fixture Ted Stevens, her chances as a 2012 presidential nominee would be all but guaranteed. Most likely, Palin will return to Alaska and sink back into obscurity as governor. Her place in history will be secured, not as America's first female vice president, but as a one-hit wonder of the political world.

Learn more about this author, Marlin Bressi.
Click here to send this author comments or questions.