1 of 10

Write now Article Tools

It has been said that there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics. The quote is often attributed to Mark Twain, but in fact he was quoting British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli. "Figures often beguile me," wrote Twain, "particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force."

Twain did more than merely popularize Disraeli's remark; he admitted that he himself was often "beguiled" by figures. Twain was nobody's fool; for him to admit that even as keen an intellect as his own could be so beguiled, is a testament to statistics' bewitching power over the mind.

What gives statistics such power to beguile? One reason is the simple fact that the results are couched in the language of numbers, and numbers have an exactness which other languages can rarely equal; already the listener/reader has the impression of a degree of precision which, for the quoted statistics, may be only an illusion. Another is that statistics are usually rooted in actual measurements, which have far more persuasive power than general impressions (which is as it should be). Furthermore, the statistics often represent the result of some numerical analysis, one which the reader is unable to reproduce, and which has an air of sophistication and insight by virtue of its mysterious complexity. Few lay readers are likely to argue with a statement like "The data are well approximated as a superimposition of a linear trend and ARMA(1,1) noise." Few lay readers have any idea what ARMA(1,1) noise is, few really understand all the implications of the phrase "linear trend," and for most, the real meaning of "well approximated" is a mystery.

There are many ways in which even an honest researcher can arrive at misleading statistics; this is a complex branch of mathematics, with many subtleties and lots of surprises. But in the vast majority of cases competent analysts arrive at valid results; misleading statistics are the result of deliberate effort. For example: "Four out of five dentists recommend Super-Duper-brand toothpaste!" What you're not told is that the advertiser polled over 1,200 groups of five dentists before finding one with four of them recommending Super-Duper brand.

Even if only one group of five dentists is surveyed, and four of them recommend Super-Duper brand, you're not told that with a sample of only 5 dentists, the uncertainty in our estimate of the "recommendation rate" is very

• 1
• 2
• 3
• next page >>

Add your voice

Know something about Statistics & lies: Assessing the value of collected data?
We want to hear your view. Write now!