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Assessing the future of political turmoil in Thailand

by Wayland Blue

Created on: October 14, 2008

The escalating violence that has affected the Thai capital of Bangkok as well as several other cities has shattered the popular image and official fiction of Thailand being a peaceful nation. Also, it can be seen as a sign of things to come in the future of a country, which will one day be forced to deal with a transition from Monarchy, all be it constitutional, to full democracy. The violence, which at one point this year closed the nation's major airports and train stations, is not without president. A careful glance at history will reveal that the so called "land of smiles" has repeatedly gone through the sort of factional rivalries and conflicts that it is currently experiencing.




Firstly, it is important to understand that this conflict and the likely conflicts of the future are not mass social movements with popular emotional support. They are the product of good organization by members of the upper class, many of whom come from well established noble families and/or are heavily invested in major business. This is not a people power movement as has been seen in Burma or the Philippines or any number of former colonial states that have had their old orders transformed by foreign occupation. Thailand was never colonized. Thus the old structures of the monarchy, the noble families, the Buddhist religion and the military have only undergone cosmetic changes with modernization. The old forces of noble factions and rivalries that have operated in and dominated the nation for as long as it has existed are still there and still at work. It is out of these that that the current conflict has sprung and is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.




Infighting and competition between great houses and strong men has shaped the modern state and social hierarchy of Thailand. Before Thailand became a unified nation, there was constant conflict between regional lords and princes. Even after there was some measure of unity under the Sukhothai and then Ayutthaya kingdoms there was always rivalry between different houses and dynasties came and went. The current dynasty came to power in 1782 after general Chakri headed a successful rebellion against king Taksin the Great and had him executed. Thus general Chakri became Rama the First and established the dynasty that has lasted to the present day. The 20th century has also seen a great deal of intrigue and conflict between members of the ruling elite. On numerous occasions the military has intervened in politics and taken

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