by Bruno Somerset

Created on: September 17, 2008   Last Updated: September 25, 2010

Probably the most famous Presidential debate was the first between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon in 1960. It was the first televised debate, and while those listening on radio thought it was either a tie or slightly in Nixon's favor, those watching on TV overwhelmingly felt that Kennedy had won. It was a clear case of style trumping substance. Kennedy simply looked better on television than Nixon did, and this may very well have been enough to give Kennedy the slim margin he needed to win (in the popular vote he won by only 118,000 votes).

Ronald Reagan solidified his reputation as the Great Communicator during the Presidential debates of 1980 and 1984, and his use of humor at key points was critical in presenting him as confident, relaxed and amazingly, more vibrant than the much younger Jimmy Carter in 1980 and Walter Mondale in 1984. There was no real question that Reagan would win in 1984, but his performance in the 1980 debates helped him defeat the incumbent Carter.

The 1988 debates were not so much won by George H.W. Bush as lost by Michael Dukakis. Dukakis' answer when asked if he would change his opinion of the death penalty if his wife were raped and murdered, made him appear cold and emotionless to the American public. He stood by his opposition to the death penalty in all cases, which was admirable, but by not adding a simple statement like "I'd kill him (the murderer) myself," he came across as almost robotic. I don't know how much this impacted the race nationwide, but my grandmother (who was 74 at the time and had never voted for a Republican in her life) wouldn't vote for Dukakis because of this.

In a turnabout from 1988, George H.W. Bush was on the wrong end of the compassion issue in 1992. While Bush looked at his watch as if he had better things to do, Bill Clinton left the podium to walk up to a questioner in the audience to assure her that he "felt her pain." After Reagan, Clinton was the best communicator this century, and the debates helped him win.

By 2000 the landscape had changed, and remains so to this day. The debates of 2000 and 2004 did little to sway anyone either way, because most had already made up their minds. In 2008 John McCain will, like George W. Bush before him, spend a great deal of time prior to the debates lowering expectations by pointing out that he's simply not as good a speaker as Barack Obama, as if the entire country didn't already know that. But it won't matter, because 98% of the population has already made up their mind who they'll vote for (at least according to the polls), and we already know who's going to win the debates.

The other drawback these days is that debates aren't really debates. Both candidates will find a way, regardless of the question, to trot out the talking points we've been hearing for over a year now. We won't learn anything new or surprising about McCain or Obama, and in the end it will be like watching a 90-minute campaign commercial. With any luck, there will be a football game on that night.

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