by Jack Deal

Created on: September 16, 2008

This was supposed to be the one. After close calls in 2000 and 2004, the Democrats were poised to take over big. After all, with an unpopular Republican President, an unpopular war, unpopular economy, unemployment, foreclosures and bank closures, how could the Democrats not win?

But now the Democrats are wringing their hands as the polls turn south and Hurricane Sarah blasts through America. How could this happen?

The answer lies in the campaign organization that the Obama team had put together. The campaign's inner circle was reduced to a handful of people. From this group comes all the campaign's command and control and just as importantly, minimal dissent.

In the primaries as Obama's star was rising this type of organization worked well, even considering that Hillary Clinton ran a very bad campaign. But John McCain has shown he is no Hillary Clinton.

All was well until just before the conventions. The Obama campaign picked as its running mate Joe Biden, a 'safe' bet with the strategy that Biden would shore up Obama's lack of experience especially in foreign relations.

So far, so good. Obama entered the conventions with a 6-10 point lead in most polls and what appeared then to be solid lead going into the final stretch. Obama's people had convinced him that Biden was a great VP choice and certainly McCain could do no better.

Maybe a 15 point lead wasn't reality but a 10 point lead sure was.

And it might have stayed that way if McCain had followed suit and picked a safe choice like Mitt Romney. But of course McCain didn't pick Romney; he picked Sarah.

Clearly the Obama campaign never imagined that McCain would pick Sarah. They, like most Democrats, were initially stunned. They couldn't believe McCain would pick an unknown.

But McCain's campaign advisers stood up and made their candidate face a hard reality; something the Obama campaign has had difficulty. McCain not only listened to the feedback but based his decision on it.

And then the Obama campaign became besieged with 'why didn't you pick Hillary?'

The initial reaction turned from surprise and shock to anger and resentment. 'How dare McCain appoint a woman?' Even Sarah was later to state that perhaps Obama regretted not picking Hillary Clinton.

The anger continued and even though Obama said he would fire anyone making sexist comments about Sarah, Pandora's Box was already opened.

The election had fundamentally changed and in a period of less than a month Obama went from eight points up to three points down.

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