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Making an analysis of the potential success of an online song

by Neil Dalson

Created on: September 16, 2008

The 21st Century Music Marketer

Everyone likes to rant and rave about the 21st Century, and new technology. Why shouldn't they? It has brought about a subtle renaissance of economic method. We saw it coming ten years ago when Napster launched for the first time. Suddenly, the information age was at hand. New music and video was available instantly. And it happened in both directions of the market. Not only did it become easier for the consumer to get what they liked, but, producers and artist became able to find each other online, share their talents, and market them. What needs to be considered when analyzing the potential for a song or group to hit big in the market today is how it flows online. We no longer concern ourselves with what is being bought, but with what is being downloaded. It's a method of review, with out the critique.

Think of it this way. You and your family are driving down a street of restaurants, trying to decide where to eat. The first one you pass is full of loud college students, binge drinking and basically being a terrible influence on your teenage daughter. It would be a good guess you're not stopping there. Next, you pass an upscale place. The patrons are sitting by candle light, and the waiters look like they need to be reminded that their just waiters. Just stepping through the door is going to cost you a hundred bucks. Your wife thinks its charming, and your kids want to gag. Your wallet straight up tells you no. Restaurant number three is a children's oriented chain. Ball pits and whack-a-mole litter the building almost as much as the pizza sauce and the discarded prize tickets. It has been a long day, and if you go in, there's a good chance you'd walk out with out your kids. Finally, the chow hall of your dreams comes up at the end of the road. It's not a gimmick. There's no huge crowd, but there's enough people there to tell you the food has to be at least halfway decent. It's charming, but not upscale. The patrons don't look obnoxious and the waiters don't seem to want to molest your daughter. It looks like you've found your niche.

I digress. This article really is about online music. The analogy is there to help you, the reader, come to grips with the way the music industry works in the information age. I'll have to delay you a bit though. The music industry is not the same beast it once was and in order to understand how well a song is going to do in today's market, you should understand how it would function in yesterday's.

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