by Scott O'Reilly

Created on: January 11, 2007   Last Updated: April 19, 2007

President Bush is preparing to send more than 20,000 U.S. troops to improve the security situation in Baghdad. Opponents of the war contend this escalation is intended to delay a catastrophic failure until after Mr. Bush leaves office. For those who supported ousting Saddam, however, a surge in U.S. forces is perhaps the last best chance to secure a positive or at least tolerable - outcome in Iraq. Not surprisingly, each side in this debate expresses deep mistrust of the other; the anti-war camp believes the war was waged under false pretenses (hence they believe is virtually doomed to fail), while the pro-surge crowd has convinced themselves that opponents of the war want America to lose. The animosity between the two sides is so palpable, however, that it obscures the fact that each side does have valid points to make. It worth examining these carefully, before coming out for or against a surge, because the decision to support a troop increase or not is arguably the most momentous and complex moral decision America is likely to face in the coming years, more important even than the decision to go to war in the first place.

In making the case to invade Iraq the Bush Administration asserted, "the risks of inaction were greater than the risks of action." Like many of the administration's confident claims about Iraq this has proven false. Invading Iraq has greatly weakened America morally, strategically, and militarily. Indeed, the biggest beneficiary of America's invasion may be Iran, which thanks to its influence in a Shia dominated Iraq stands to emerge as the dominant power in the Persian Gulf. Further, the fact that nearly 150,000 U.S. troops are bogged down in Iraq has greatly complicated America's ability to deal with Iran's nuclear ambitions.

Regardless of whether America should or should not have invaded Iraq, a hasty withdrawal is going to compound America's problems in excruciating ways. First, a precipitous withdrawal will almost certainly consign Iraq to a genocidal civil war that will kill hundreds of thousands and create millions of refugees. Wholesale ethnic cleansing is likely to draw in Iraq's neighbors as Saudi Arabia and Jordan seek to protect their Sunni brethren, while Iran moves into to support their oil-rich Shia allies. In such a scenario the Kurds are all but certain to declare independence, a fact that will invite Turkey to try a quash a Kurdish state (the creation of which would generate unrest among Turkey's Kurdish population). In

• 1
• 2
• Next Page >>