Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the Eastern Block, America and the West has worked to incorporate more and more of the former Soviet client states or territories into NATO, the E.U. and other multilateral organizations in effect reducing the influence and prestige of Russia. This effort to bring former communist states into the family of "free" nations has been a unique courtship on both sides. The case of Georgia was mostly "under the radar" of the western media, until the events of early August 2008. In fact, the roots of the conflict go back to the time that Georgia became independent of the former USSR. Since that time, South Ossetia and Abhzakia refused to consider themselves to be part of Georgia and defeated the attempt of Georgia to force recognition of Georgian sovereignty with its military. Since the early 1990's, both regions fought off the Georgian troops and maintained strict autonomy with Russian support. In fact, the rebels had long sought recognition of their independence from Georgia and passports were provided by Russia. Thus, they have been under de facto Russian protectorship since then and Russian troops have been stationed there ever since on a peace keeping mission.
The present crisis began August 7, when Georgia sent its troops into the capital of South Ossetia. Among the early casualties were some of the Russian peacekeeping troops. Georgia should have expected that Russia would respond in kind. The next day, Russian tanks began to stream across the border and quickly routed the Georgians. The Russians didn't stop at the borders of the breakaway provinces and instead began to stream into Georgia proper. Despite a France-brokered ceasefire agreement that appeared to end the conflict, Russian troops did not leave Georgia proper and instead took strategic positions within Georgia. Israel has built a friendly relationship with Georgia by providing military training and assistance. Russian troops located two airports that Israel had helped to develop and they inflicted damage. How long will the Russians remain garrisoned in Georgia? Russia considers it to be within their right to self-defense to maintain some troops in Georgia proper.
Georgia's U.S. educated Prime Minister Saakavili has been roundly criticized for rousing and provoking the Russian bear to come to battle and then follow through on its threat to recognize the dissident provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states. Russia had said it might do that when the US and Europe recognized Kosovo as independent of Serbia. The similarities are markedly similar, yet Russia did not follow through on its intention to support complete independence, until Saakavili moved his troops in after the Olympics had began. Putin was in Beijing, but that did not cause any delay in the Russian military response. Obviously, it was a possibility that the Russians had considered and they were prepared for it had been After witnessing many former client states be picked of by the West, Russia was ready to send a message that it still considered that it had a priviledged position with the formerly communist countries on its periphery.
Undoubtedly, Saakavili had thought that he had prepared enough to reclaim power in the break away provinces. Indeed, Georgia had nurtured an increasingly close relationship with the US and its close ally Israel. In fact, Georgia's defense minister is a former Israeli and the Israelis had invested in both military infrastructure and commercial ventures in Georgia to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars. Georgian troops had received training by both the Americans and the Israelis and George Bush was pushing for Georgia to be invited into NATO. However, with our hands full in Iraq and Afghanistan, America did not have troops to divert easily to the Caucuses. In fact, Bush did launch a "humanitarian" air lift by the US military and promised to send $1 billion in financial aid to Georgia, making it the largest recipient after Israel, Egypt and Iraq. Suddenly, Georgia has vaulted into the highest ranks of recipients of American largess. Although America did not react militarily, it did provide significant enough support to Georgia to make a Russian sponsored coup in Georgia impractical.
As for the future, South Ossetia and Abzekhia are lost to Georgia, something which Sakkavili should have already realized, given that Georgian troops have been unable to control them since Georgia achieved statehood. Despite repeated entreaties to entice them to return to the fold, the leaders of those provinces have made it abundantly clear they will not willingly return and now Russia has effectively guaranteed that by increasing its troop commitments to those areas. Whether they will actually become independent countries, albeit dependent on support from Russia or incorporated directly into the Russian Federation remains to be seen. Given the small populations involved (around 100,000 inhabitants each), either case is likely to result in increasing integration into the Russian orbit. Given the expressed wills of the people in those areas, including in plebiscites, that was inevitable and believing anything else was just wishful thinking.
However, will the US try to foster increased unrest in other parts of the Caucuses? Certainly, Russia has had serious challenges in Chechenia and to a lesser degree in Dagestan and elsewhere. However, it seems highly unlikely to cause the level of changes seen in Georgia, even if American claudestine operations are initiated in the region. The reason is that the areas of unrest are not currently administered by rebels, as has been the case in South Ossetia and Abzhekia. Certainly, the Georgians must feel more closely affiliated with the West, as a result of what has happened. In the end, the impacts were predictable in both direction. However, it is indisputable that the Russian action has caused renewed dedication of pro-Russian contingents in other countries within Russia's traditional sphere of influence, inlcuding in Ukraine and Azerbaijan. The repercussions of awaking the slumbering Russian bear are likely to be recognized and assessed for years to come.