Barack Obama took the early Democratic primaries by storm with high sounding principles and dedicated organizers, however as he lost momentum and adopted a so-called centrist approach, he began to lose definition. Ironically, just as the Bush Administration has begun to follow the Obama prescriptions for Iraq and Afghanistan, he has been slow to regroup and trumpet the success of his leadership in international affairs and on the national stage. Obama has been slow to develop hard hitting advertisements and "sound bites" for news broadcasts. He managed to receive strong endorsements from the Clintons at the convention and to unify the party, but his traditional strength in organizing supporters has fallen from view. Obama's rock star celebrity in the media has temporarily been eclipsed by McCain's daring Veep choice of Sarah Palin. With under 2 months to the election, Obama must find ways to regain the initiative or face the realization that McCain is considered the "safe choice" by many of the undecided.
Obama could choose to ride out the far right's infatuation with Palin and hope that skeletons in her closet, such as "Troopergate", allegations of an extramarital affair and/or disingenuous statements about opposing the "bridge to nowhere" (she originally hired a consultant to pursue it) and fiscal responsibility (as Wasilla's mayor, debt rose $20 million) dull her sheen. Indeed, questions about the thoroughness of McCain's vetting abound and seem to indicate he had intended to choose Joe Lieberman, but was overruled by party leaders. It highlights McCain's tendency to discount the risks of being a maverick, insisting on his own way and shooting from the hip, without a full grasp of the facts. Were it not for the extreme unpopularity of Bush, the Republicans would have chosen a more conventional standard-bearer. However, now that Palin has consolidated his standing with the Evangelicals and the far right, McCain is free to recraft his candidacy to appeal to independents. Suddenly, the race is effectively even in polls and McCain has the momentum. Believing that Obama's familiar approach to campaigning can continue to work is risks failure.
Of course, McCain's choice of Palin also galvanized faithful Obama supporters to pony up $10 million in contributions in record time. However, his true believers were never in doubt. It is the independents and undecideds who will determine the winner. Many among those who have not made up their minds are subject to being swayed by the Republican negative adv. machine, those who worry that Obama's experience is too light and those with racial hangups. Already, pushing those buttons caused Obama to lose several points in polls over the summer.
Ordinarily, given the rise in official unemployment to 6.1%, high gas prices (still over $4/gallon), the mortgage meltdown, unprecedented federal debt levels and wars that drag on years longer than originally expected would all keep McCain out of striking distance. However,
Obama has failed to capitalize on these strategic advantages.
In the lead up to the primaries, Obama was able to play the role of the underdog and surprise pundits about his level of support. He was able to adjust his tactics, based on results then, but in the general election, there is only one go at it. Thus, Obama must learn to adjust his tactics on the fly, or he will be relegated to reacting to his opponents and that is not a position of strength. The McCain machine has been trying to make the election a referendum on Obama, instead of on the Bush years or on the issues. In order to regain the initiative, Obama needs to bind McCain to the legacy of the Bush years and push McCain on the issues. McCain has famously acknowledged his lack of background on economic issues and his plans to revive the moribund economy largely remain a mystery, yet Obama has failed to produce pithy one-liners on this and other critical areas. Obama's soaring rhetoric works well in large crowds, but it also seems to engender separation. It exacerbates his weakness in connecting with blue collar workers. Obama desperately needs the support of the lunchbox crowd in the Mid-West and Joe Biden and surrogates alone can't be expected to bridge the gap. Obama needs to lead in reaching out to those who have been left behind.
The Obama platform is more fully developed than McCain's, yet too often, it gets lost in the shuffle. The Obama campaign needs to reduce its talking points to easily understood sound bites and turn that into a mantra, instead of continually adjusting the focus. Too many voters don't understand what he stands for, despite his policy statements. Obama has credible plans for developing alternative sources of energy and putting the country back to work, however they have been drowned out by the McCain camp's attacks. Given the dire condition of the economy, it is ridiculous and inexcusable that Obama has failed to make the election a referendum on Bush economic results. If the tables were reversed, it is a foregone conclusion that McCain would be attacking Obama. Apparently, Obama would prefer to lose an election than to hold an opponent accountable for his record in a presidential race. If he is too nice to attack his opponents now, how can voters expect him to stand up to foreign adversaries? Obama actually has a record of reaching across the aisle to Republicans in the Senate in pursuing ethics reform and collecting loose nuclear materials from the Soviet era, however his surrogates are slow to point that out.
If he really wants to win, Obama should turn up the heat on McCain, both directly and indirectly, as well as to make his own record of accomplishment ubiquitous. It is possible to remind voters at every opportunity what 4 more years of "McBush" would mean. Certainly, McCain has and will pursue every opening to reduce Obama's credibility. Obama must find ways to turn the tables on McCain, without sounding ugly or unfair. Obama is long winded as the former professor that he is and that makes him sound less than sincere. He should practice "cutting to the chase" more quickly and learn to work the crowds into a healthy frenzy. He has lived under the microscope for a couple of years, so now it is time for him to make it abundantly clear what he stands for. Obama should galvanize both high profile surrogates and his armies of supporters into people capable of discussing his platform with conviction.
Giving up absolute and total control of the detailed message would enable Obama to focus on the broad picture and to keep it accurate and consistent. He chose to reject federal matching funds, so he must raise much more than John McCain just to keep up, let alone to maintain his advantage. Obama should not rely on Joe Biden exclusively to hit their opponents hard, so he should unleash surrogates and also respond himself. The message can remain positive and still clarify the differences with himself and even raise doubts about McBush and Palin. By now, Obama has made various changes in position and their explanation has been a challenge for his campaign. He should show how the U.S. will afford his various monetary commitments, to bolster his credentials as a fiscal conservative and contrast that with McCain. Obama should plan out each week and every day until November 5 in terms of making his positions more clear and retake control of the race. Otherwise, it will take control of him.