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Barack Obama took the early Democratic primaries by storm with high sounding principles and dedicated organizers, however as he lost momentum and adopted a so-called centrist approach, he began to lose definition. Ironically, just as the Bush Administration has begun to follow the Obama prescriptions for Iraq and Afghanistan, he has been slow to regroup and trumpet the success of his leadership in international affairs and on the national stage. Obama has been slow to develop hard hitting advertisements and "sound bites" for news broadcasts. He managed to receive strong endorsements from the Clintons at the convention and to unify the party, but his traditional strength in organizing supporters has fallen from view. Obama's rock star celebrity in the media has temporarily been eclipsed by McCain's daring Veep choice of Sarah Palin. With under 2 months to the election, Obama must find ways to regain the initiative or face the realization that McCain is considered the "safe choice" by many of the undecided.

Obama could choose to ride out the far right's infatuation with Palin and hope that skeletons in her closet, such as "Troopergate", allegations of an extramarital affair and/or disingenuous statements about opposing the "bridge to nowhere" (she originally hired a consultant to pursue it) and fiscal responsibility (as Wasilla's mayor, debt rose $20 million) dull her sheen. Indeed, questions about the thoroughness of McCain's vetting abound and seem to indicate he had intended to choose Joe Lieberman, but was overruled by party leaders. It highlights McCain's tendency to discount the risks of being a maverick, insisting on his own way and shooting from the hip, without a full grasp of the facts. Were it not for the extreme unpopularity of Bush, the Republicans would have chosen a more conventional standard-bearer. However, now that Palin has consolidated his standing with the Evangelicals and the far right, McCain is free to recraft his candidacy to appeal to independents. Suddenly, the race is effectively even in polls and McCain has the momentum. Believing that Obama's familiar approach to campaigning can continue to work is risks failure.

Of course, McCain's choice of Palin also galvanized faithful Obama supporters to pony up $10 million in contributions in record time. However, his true believers were never in doubt. It is the independents and undecideds who will determine the winner. Many among those who have not made up their minds are subject to being swayed

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