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No one can guarantee that you'll win your fantasy football league. But if you want to improve your odds, you'll need a draft strategy that will put opponents back on their heels. You'll want to create separation by selecting top players in positions where your opponents are thin. Here's how.
1. STUDY YOUR OPPONENTS' LIKES AND FEARS. Fantasy football owners, like poker players, tend to follow patterns. They have tells. If you've been playing in the same league for years, most of these tells will be obvious. Some owners love a strong backfield. Others are desperate for a good quarterback. Still others will do almost anything to avoid rookies and injury-prone players. Take note of these tendencies; they'll help you to maximize your draft position.
And if you're new to a league? Talk with your opponents. Ask them for opinions on players and teams and record their responses. Intelligence is no substitute for experience but your surveys will make you smarter than you'd be otherwise, giving you an advantage in a draft where you're likely to be viewed as the underdog.
2. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF YOUR SCORING SYSTEM AND DRAFT POSITION. Study your league and its history. Are quarterbacks historically more valuable? Do they score more, as they do in our league? (We don't count interceptions against and award 1 point for every 10 yards passing rather than 1 for every 20 or more.)
Also, what can you learn about draft history? Do owners who pick early tend to perform better? If so, how do they win? The more you know about how others in your league have won, the more likely it is that you'll be able to build a winner. History often repeats itself.
It can also be useful to study general trends. Mock drafts can be enormously useful in this area. CBS Sportsline, ESPN, and the Sporting News all have them. CBS Sportsline, in particular, ranks players by where they've been selected in mock drafts at the site. This data can be extremely useful in estimating how many rounds you can let a favorite player slip before you're forced to act. Be careful, though. General trends are just that, general. Specific knowledge about your league and opponents will be more important in ranking players.
3. PAY ATTENTION TO THE NEWS WIRES. Most of us are busy and your opponents are most people. At least two of them will have done little or no preparation before heading to your draft, shiny new fantasy football magazine in hand. Watch for these guys on draft night. Take note of their position and demeanor. The more nervous they are, the more likely they are to ignore an important story. These are the folks who will draft rib-racked Wes Welker too early. Or who will forget that Brandon Marshall is subject to a season-opening suspension. Uninformed opponents create opportunities for separation.
Don't let common wisdom dictate your draft strategy. Everyone knows the common wisdom; that's why we call it common. Seek instead to create separation. Study your opponents' likes and fears. Take advantage of your scoring system and draft position. Pay attention to the news wires. Victory goes to those who prepare for opportunities and then act boldly when they arise.
Learn more about this author, Tim Beyers.
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