3 of 13

Write now Article Tools

Horrible though it has been for the people of Georgia and South Ossetia, the current conflict could prove to be a blessing in disguise for several reasons. The end of the Cold War around 1990 led to all sorts of fatuous claims and assumptions, such as 'the end of History'. The collapse of the Soviet Union soon afterwards seemed to rob some countries and their leaders of common sense. Now, at last, some grip on reality may be re-established.

Any prospect of Russia becoming capitalist and democratic in the Western sense was dashed by the mishandling of events in the 1990s. Ordinary Russians were pauperised by economic collapse. Economic power and wealth was hijacked by those we now know as 'Oligarchs', gangsterism flourished and chaos reigned. Out of this mess, almost inevitably, arose a 'strong man' in the tradition of Russian history, a new Tsar, Vladimir Putin. Restoring order and prosperity made him immensely popular at home. Restoring Russia's status as a world power rather than a pitiable basket case is an aim most Russians seem to support.

Mr Putin may now be Prime Minister rather than President, but he seems to be the top man still. The events in Georgia have exposed his intentions, or at least his inclinations. Using the wealth generated by Russia's massive reserves of oil and gas, he intends to try to reassert Russian hegemony over neighboring countries which were once part of the Soviet Union or were 'satellite' states.

Russain intervention has gone well beyond simply protecting its citizens in South Ossetia or Abkhazia. Mr Saakashvili, the Georgian President, perhaps acted foolishly in provoking this problem, but he may well have done us all a favor. Russia has made its choice and consequences should follow. It should no longer be allowed observer status at NATO meetings. It should not be included in the G8 summits. It should have no role in the World bank. If Russia does not want to keep to 'the rules', it should not expect to be 'on the team'.

Western nations must quickly make up their minds whether they wish to integrate countries like Georgia and Ukraine into the E.U. and NATO. Russia may well see such moves as provocative and an attempt to 'encircle' her ( no easy task with a country spanning about 10 time zones!), but she herself has made clear that she does not intend to respect the current status quo. If a vacuum is left, under Mr Putin, Russia will attempt to fill it. Given the long history of conflict in the Caucasus, stretching back into the nineteenth century at least, it would be wise to allow 'self determination' to enclaves wishing independence. Georgia may have to set South Ossetia and Abkhazia free if it is to move forwards into the E.U. and NATO.

George W. Bush has many critics, but on this occasion at least he seems to have responded very effectively to Russian incursion into Georgia. He is not letting the Russians have a clear field to do as they like and has made clear his intention to support Georgian independence and reconstruction, while not endorsing their actions in South Ossetia. A line has been drawn in the sand, and it will give even Mr Putin plenty to think about. The rest of us can see that the Russian Bear is not a cuddly Teddy Bear; it's a bit more like a Kodiak Griz scenting meat!

Learn more about this author, Mark Hopkins.
Click here to send this author comments or questions.

Add your voice

Know something about Reflections: Russian intervention and the conflict in South Ossetia, Georgia?
We want to hear your view. Write now!