Poker is a game of odds. Get your money in when the odds favor you, out when they don't. It's no different with bluffing; players who do it well know their odds of success before they push chips into the pot.
If that punctures your view of bluffing as an art, a skill mastered only by smoke-stained, glass-eyed, silver-haired robots, it should: effective bluffing demands far more science than art. To poker pro Bob Ciaffone - a player so skilled at teaching the game he holds the nickname, "The Coach" - you should ask four questions before bluffing:
1. What does my opponent think I hold?
2. What sort of person is he?
3. Can I bet enough for him to consider folding?
4. Can I gain any information that will help with my decision?
Notice how Ciaffone, who proposed this framework in the book "Improve Your Poker," urges analysis of your principal competition for the pot. At high limits or in tournaments, this is both appropriate and smart. But for low-limit cash games it's also important to understand the rhythm of the game you're playing. If the action always concludes with a showdown, there's no point in bluffing - someone will always call your bet.
Consider playing a bluff as you would a draw. Say you're playing $10-$20 limit Hold'em; you're on the button with 9-8 of clubs and four of the nine players in front of you have called the big blind by pitching $10 into the pot. Your read is that the small blind, already in for a half-bet, will simply call, giving you six opponents if you also call. You should. You're getting paid 6 to 1 - that is, your $10 bet could win six bets - to see a flop; pretty good odds when as many as 23 of the remaining 32 cards (four 6s, four 7s, four 10s, four Jacks, and the seven remaining clubs) could help your hand, not including the other 9s and 8s.
You can analyze a bluff similarly if you study your opponents at the table. Do they often fold after a big bet? Do they play a lot of hands but then give up when they aren't seeing the cards they had hoped for? Analyze your opponent through Ciaffone's four-question filter and then determine your odds. So, for example, if your observations suggest that your opponent folds to a big bet on the flop 75% of the time - or three out of every four - then the pot needs to be paying you just 4 for 3, or $40 for every $30 bet, in order to mathematically justify a bluff.
Most often, you should demand much more than that. You should like the odds of your bluff paying off far more than your opponent likes what the pot is paying him to call you. Therein lies the art: effective bluffing, though built on careful observation and pattern recognition, is still guesswork.
But don't let that deter you. Here are three signs that a well-timed bluff will work in your poker game.
1. THE PLAY IS TENTATIVE. When players fold too easily, it can pay to bluff aggressively. Not only will you win more bets over the short term but also, if you get caught, your opponents will recognize that they need to become more aggressive in playing against you. You, of course, will respond by cutting back on your bluffs, allowing your opponents to bet into you when you have a superior hand.
2. YOU HAVE A REPUTATION. If most of the players at the table have played with you before, you can use what they know about your style to bluff effectively. So, for example, if your opponents know that you rarely raise when you're first to act, and that, when you do, it usually means you have a big hand, raise with nothing in that same situation once. If you win, you've added a few bets to your stake. If you get called, you've created a problem for opponents who thought they had you pegged.
3. YOU'RE ON A WINNING STREAK. Poker players will tell you that theirs is a game of streaks. Sometimes the cards run hot, sometimes cold. When yours are running hot, take advantage of this axiom by bluffing at a small pot; you're on a streak, everyone expects you to win anyway. And if you get called, you won't lose much.
Neither a sacrifice nor an opportunity to "mix up" your game, effective bluffing is the soft science of using imperfect information - the odds - to win more money than the cards you're dealt would otherwise allow. Mastery of it is the difference between inexperienced home gamers and pros like Ciaffone, who profit from their weak play. You can, too, now that you know both the art and science of effective bluffing.