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this part of Europe in recent years; the openness with which Ukraine and Georgia have pursued relations with the West and the recent independence of Kosovo from Serbia a staunch ally of Russia have put Russia's nose out of joint and have no doubt increased the desire to reinforce her military strength and capabilities within the region, a public flexing of muscle if you will.

Those who believe that Georgia is in the right say that the Russians want to prolong the conflict in the hope that it brings down Saakashvili's government. The Russians have always backed the South Ossetians and it is likely they have supplied arms and other financial backing to the South Ossetian nationalists. But what of Saakashvili's actions in marching into the region, fully aware that the Russians will respond in no uncertain terms? A foolish move and one that was always going to result in bloodshed? In military terms Georgia is dwarfed by Russia and even a claim that Georgia will recall two thousand of her troops currently stationed in Iraq can hardly help her campaign; both on the ground and in the air Georgia can not compete.

Commentators have suggested that Saakashvili is hoping that NATO will step in the help its young and enthusiastic protg. However, the question must be considered of whether NATO would risk entering into a conflict with Russia given the long Cold War and the relative cordiality of relations since that ended.

The major NATO players are unlikely to volunteer physical assistance in the form of troops although the UK and France have issued statements denouncing the violence and warning Russia that they cannot support her actions. The UN more or less finds itself ineffective because any statement it might wish to release can be vetoed by Russia and Russia knows she can stop any attempts to stabilise the situation that are not in her favour.

While NATO and individual governments may not officially offer assistance to Georgia in the shape of arms or troops, there is the chance that individuals may travel to Georgia from countries that were once part of the Soviet Union or satellite states now free of Communism, people who are against the way that Russia continually seeks to emphasise her hold over the region and who will gladly volunteer to fight alongside the Georgians to show their belief that the Russians should not be able to ride roughshod over Georgian territory.

Whatever happens, it is clear that this is not a conflict that will end quickly. While the Georgians look to NATO to help them, Putin will dig his heels in further. He has made no secret of his determination that Georgia should not join NATO and such is his scorn for the organisation that he is unlikely to enter into any dialogue with NATO officials. With the rest of Europe unwilling to enter a potentially long and violent conflict and Russia able to block any UN action it seems that the only likely winner is Russia.

Learn more about this author, Fiona Thompson.
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