by Bob Swanson

Created on: August 09, 2008   Last Updated: October 31, 2008

J.J. Redick will not be an NBA star of the future; I'm going to tell you why. First thing, we need to remember his college career. He was one of the greatest players in Duke history. Duke is one of the great historic basketball colleges. To play for them, let alone be one of the best to play for them is a great honor. J.J also holds the record for scoring at Duke. He broke Johnny Dawkins' record when he scored 2,557 career points. He was one of the best 3-point shooters in the history of college basketball. J.J. was a great college basketball player, college being the key word.

Great college players do not always translate to great professionals. Redick's strength will in the end, be his downfall. Redick is a great shooter, that's it. Great shooters come off the bench in a tight game. They are a sixth man, or come in to take the game winning shot. To be a great NBA player you cannot just be a great shooter, you need to be a great scorer. To put it in simple terms, you have to be able to take it to the hoop and score it.

J.J. was known at Duke for taking his share of 3-pointers. This has spilled over to his NBA career. Almost half of his shots are from 3-point range. NBA defenders know he can score from deep. Defenders will guard against the 3 ball and contest his shots from deep. This means almost half of his shots are contested. You will not be successful when NBA defenders contest half of your shots.

For the sake of argument let's compare him to other players like him. The first player is Manu Ginobili. Manu takes his share of 3-pointers, just like Redick. What separates them is that Manu will pump fake and then explode to the rim scoring in the paint. J.J. does not do this. He looks for his spot up shots that he got in college. He will not get those wide open shots in the NBA. Manu exploits the defense when they guard his deep shot. He takes advantage of that and drives to the rim. This makes Manu not just a shooter, but also a scorer.

A second player is Mike Bibby. Bibby is about the same size and can shoot the 3. Once again, what separates him from Redick is he can score the ball multiple ways. Bibby will drive into the paint for a lay-up or finger roll. J.J. again does not do this. He relies too much on his jumper. The defense knows he can make a jumper, they guard against it. When your only weapon is the jump shot you cannot be a star in the NBA. Players that are like Redick are 6th men or are spot shooters. They will come in late or when someone needs a breather.

J.J can be a solid NBA player. He however will not be a star. Unless he changes the makeup of his game he will not be a star. Every superstar in the league can score multiple ways to exploit the defense. There is a big deference between being a shooter (Redick) and being a scorer (Ginobili and Bibby). For Redick to become a star he has to be able to take the ball into the paint and score there. When a player is one-dimensional the defenders will be able to sit back and wait. Being one-dimensional will make J.J. a solid player, but not a star in the NBA.

Learn more about this author, Bob Swanson.
Click here to send this author comments or questions.