by Zoumana Coulibaly

Created on: July 31, 2008

Less than 30 days before the Democratic and Republican conventions, speculations are high on who will be picked as running mate on both tickets. On the Democratic side, three names appear on top of the list: Senator Evan Bayh(Indiana), Senator Joe Bidden(Delaware), Governor Tim Kaine(Virginia).
Using the elimination method based on three factors, i will be able to predict who will be chosen as Senator Obama's running mate.

1. Change:
Sen. Biden: In office since 1973. He run two unsuccessful presidential bids (1988, 2008).
New Fact: in 2004, Joe Biden urged John Kerry, then the Democratic Nominee, to select John McCain as running mate arguing that a join ticket would help heal 'vicious rift' dividing the United States.
Note: He has been around Washington and its politics for as long as one can remember.

Sen. Bayh: Former Indiana Secretary of State (January 1987 January 1989), former Indiana Governor (January 9, 1989 January 13, 1997). Junior Senator (January 6, 1999).
Note: He is new to Washington but a popular face in Indiana.

Gov. Kaine: Mayor of Richmond, Virginia(1998-200), Lieutenant Governor or Virginia(January 14, 2002 January 14, 2006), Governor of Virginia(January 14, 2006).
Note: He is an ascending figure who is totally new to the public just like Senator Obama was.

On change, Senator Biden is out of picture as well as Senator Bayh.

2. Foreign Policy and National Security:
Gov. Kaine: Near to zero credentials. Note: he was against the war on Iraq.

Sen. Bayh: Voted for the war in Iraq. Stated that his vote was mistake. He introduced a resolution providing economic sanctions to Iran for its Nuclear Program. He is also a Member of the Committee on Armed Services.

Sen. Biden: Voted in support of Iraq war. He is Member of the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations.

On Foreign Policy and National Security, Governor Kaine is out of the picture. Sen. Biden wins due to his long experience.

3. Economy:
Sen. Biden: Near to Zero credentials.

Sen. Bayh: Member of the Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship, Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, Subcommittee on Financial Institutions, Subcommittee on Securities, Insurance and Investment. Chairman of the Subcommittee on Security and International Trade and Finance.

Gov. Kaine: Delivered the 2006 Democratic response to the President's State of the Union address in which he criticized Bush's tax cut and spending as "reckless". In July 2008, his administration cut back spending.

On the Economy, Senator Bayh is the clear winner.

Senator Obama said that he will select as running mate someone who is able to work for change but in order to bring about change, victory must be achieved. Therefore, i am able to predict that Senator Evan Bayh will be selected as the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee.

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