6 of 16

Write now Article Tools

Analyzing group identity politics for the 2008 presidential election

When analyzing and/or predicting a presidential election victor, it is a popular method among analysts to evaluate groups that are defined by a certain shared characteristic, and then assess which candidate appeals more to the group's core values. This is not to say that every voter in each group will cast their vote in the same fashion, this process simply tries to ascertain which candidate will get the majority (not necessarily overwhelming) of a particular group's vote.

Going through the voter groups that will make an impact on the election, and then analyzing which candidate will likely get the majority of their votes, is a way to get an idea of what will happen this November. This method is certainly not flawless, but then again either is the Gallup Poll. Let's delve into the political madness.

*Let us begin the analyzing with the all important youth vote. The youth vote did not show up in the large numbers expected for John Kerry in 2004, but many political analysts are predicting an overwhelmingly large turn out this election. The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement reports, "Young Americans have been turning out to vote at remarkable rates in these primaries. This reflects their deep concern about the critical issues at stake and the impact of this election on our country's future."

The youth vote is going to be extraordinarily important this November, which has the Obama campaign ecstatic over their loyal following of young voters. Simply looking at each candidate's internet presence speaks volumes about their chances of connecting with the young demographic. Obama is making a direct appeal to young people, which is apparent in the methods of campaigning he is using, and is contrary to anything that McCain is attempting, or even capable of. So hands down the youth vote goes to Obama.

*On the opposite end of the spectrum the senior citizen vote may be leaning toward McCain. I don't expect this to be a blow out because I think much of the older population is frustrated with the current administration and will therefore vote Obama. However, I think it is safe to assume a great deal of the older demographic relates more to John McCain, and he will therefore get their vote.

*The Latino vote. While McCain has the advantage of residing from the Southwestern state of Arizona, Obama will certainly have Hillary Clinton and Bill Richardson campaigning for him throughout

• 1
• 2
• 3
• next page >>

Add your voice

Know something about US elections 2008: Assessing Obama's chances against McCain?
We want to hear your view. Write now!