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Assessing the future of Colombia's conflict against FARC

by David A.G. Fischer

Created on: July 11, 2008   Last Updated: July 13, 2008

Since Wednesday, 2 July 2008, accolades for President Alvaro Uribe and Colombia's military have been cast from around the world. Even one of the president's harshest critics, President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, has surprisingly acknowledged the event with applause.

Uribe and his military are undoubtedly entitled to the pervasive response of praise for last week's precisely executed, humanitarian operation which liberated 15 high-profile hostages from the hands of the planet's longest-enduring guerrilla group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). If the top brass maintain their integrity, perhaps they will succeed in delivering more fatal blows to the guerrilla group.

While France and the United States were two of the first countries to officially congratulate the Colombian president and his military's victorious rescue, the people of Colombia are responding in like fashion. Uribe's approval rating is said to have surged to over 90 per cent. One of Colombia's publications, El Espectador, has reported that 65 per cent of Colombians polled would vote for Uribe if he is granted a constitutionally amended, third attempt at office in 2010.

If Uribe is indeed able to overcome the Supreme Court's hesitation to approve the amendment, he will still be faced with opponents who are gaining popularity. One of the potential candidates would be Juan Manuel Santos, Colombia's Defense Minister who was a central figure in planning the rescue mission. The Fulbright scholar with a doctorate in law, who came aboard Uribe's administration in July 2006, has great potential with enormous public appeal.

Santos aside, the highest-profile captive, Ingrid Betancourt, who was one of the people rescued in Wednesday's mission, has vowed to become Colombia's next president. Since being liberated, she said that facilitating the release of the Marxist group's remaining prisoners is her new mission in life. With all the media surrounding her 76-month FARC capture, her popularity and public promise could vault her to become Colombia's first female leader.

Betancourt is calling on leaders of neighboring Venezuela and Ecuador to play a positive role in bringing an end to the conflict. She says that Presidents Chavez and Correa could be actively important if the FARC request peace negotiations.

However, Latin American expert Adam Isacson of the Washington-based Center for International Policy does not espouse Betancourt's optimism in Chavez and Correa. In fact, Isacson claims that last week's

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