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Iran's recent test firing of several missiles threatens stability in the region, no doubt. And, no doubt, President Amadinejad wants to shift the balance of power in Iran's direction. The missiles and ongoing uranium enrichment will achieve this, no doubt about it. So, the west, led by the U.S., rattles sabers in response. However, that may be just what Amadinejad planned.

Recent analyses indicate that the current enrichment program produces low-grade enriched uranium, suitable for energy production but not for weapons. On the other hand, it takes little effort to ratchet up the program to start producing weapons-grade uranium. If Iran could produce nuclear weapons, then there would be serious reason for concern. This is the basis of international responses, such as France's just announced withdrawal from a joint energy development project in Iran and other economic sanctions.

If Iran has missiles that can reach Israel also raises serious concerns, given Amadinejad's rhetoric about erasing Israel from the map. Iran's flagrant testing of these missiles, alongside its refusal to halt uranium enrichment, provides the basis for reports such as those in the media a short while ago about the possibility or even probability of either Israel or the U.S. using military intervention.

Israel faces a regional enemy that openly threatens its existence and apparently has the means to realize those threats. The U.S. has a history of antagonism with Iran since the fall of the Shah, and views Amadinejad's regime as an supporter and exporter of terrorism, including the Iraq insurgency. Both have strong motives for blocking Iran's ability to carry out its threats.

However, all of this is as apparent as the pieces on a chessboard. Could it be that Amadinejad has maneuvered both Israel and the U.S. into a position where there will be a strategic attack? As a good player may sacrifice a chess piece in order to increase position, Amadinejad may be willing to sacrifice casualties from such an attack to shift power in Iran's favor.

There is a risk here that Amadinejad wants Israel to strike missile and uranium sites, much as it struck against Syria several months ago. This provides him with "proof" of Israel's aggressiveness, gives an argument for Israel as a puppet of the U.S., and increases his stature and power among Moslem-Arab states. Iran can still build more uranium enrichment plants and more missiles. Yet, in the field of public rhetoric, it might have much more propaganda fodder to recruit more terrorists, move more moderates toward the hardliners, and reinforce the hardliners' position domestically. Amadinejad gains a lot.

Of course, it's a tricky corner to be in. Don't take out the dangerous sites, and Amadinejad can develop them and attack. Attack, and Amadinejad can use the attack to strengthen his own power, possibly with fewer losses than if Iran attacked first.

So, no doubt about it, Amadinejad wants to keep us all off-balance when it comes to Middle East power.

Learn more about this author, Michael Deqel.
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