by Sam Brean

Created on: July 08, 2008   Last Updated: October 31, 2008

Analyzing Ryan Howard's chances of being elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame is similar to predicting the adult life success of a toddler. Although the toddler may be standing straight and tall at the moment, stumbling in various directions is likely, and falling down on his backside is not out of the question.

Howard, the burly Philadelphia Phillies' slugging first baseman stepped his career off on the right foot by winning the National League Rookie of the Year Award, then capturing the Most Valuable Player trophy in his sophomore season. In 2008, his third full campaign, he has continued his mashing ways with outstanding home run and runs-batted-in totals, but his batting average is in the yucky .220-ish range.

That's all folks. All we know about Ryan Howard's baseball career can be summed up in one paragraph. He is a baby in major league baseball player terms. Hall of Fame membership for players is reserved for a relatively few elite performers impactful on the game for a long period of time. Baseball annals are bulging with stories and stats on players who have two outstanding seasons, like Howard.

Is Howard's Mendoza Line-like batting average a trend or mirage? We don't know. The statistical sampling size is insignificant. It's possible skilled pitchers have discovered a weak link in his swing. Will injury derail his career as it has so many others? Will flawed character emerge? Will a mega-bucks contract sap his motivation?

A variety of circumstances may cause Ryan Howard to stumble. He's not in school yet, where cold feet are common, and puberty unvails surprises. The Phillies are a gigantically offensive team. What if the team's performance slips and they trade, rather than pay, their big bopper to a less capable team, or an American League team where he becomes a designated hitter? His numbers may decline; there is one DH in the Hall of Fame: Edgar Martinez.

Unfortunately and unfairly for Howard, early years of his professional career will be associated with later years of the Steroid Era. Ryan powered his way to the majors beginning in 2001 by hitting a lot of monster minor league home runs. Let's hope he doesn't falter in the coming seasons. Declining home run numbers are popping up throughout baseball. The game's soiling steroid saga isn't over.

Alex Rodriguez is in his sixteenth season in the show. Is there anyone who doesn't think "A-Rod" will be elected to the Hall of Fame? Ryan's Phillie teammate, Pat Burrell, is grinding out his tenth season. Is there anyone who thinks "Pat the Bat" will have a plaque in Cooperstown? Time will tell the tale of Ryan Howard.

When the big guy leaves high school, we'll know more about the direction he is headed the Rodriguez highway, or the Burrell byway. He still has much to learn about major league baseball. If the first two and one-half seasons are not a charade, if exceptional performance becomes routine, and he is blessed with stable health, Howard may well be inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame some day.

Enjoy watching Ryan Howard play baseball, while we have him. He's an exciting ballplayer. Kids grow up way too fast, so let's not get ahead of ourselves. Wish him well, hang on for the ride, and when he thanks fans during his Hall of Fame induction speech, say thank you back to him.

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