What constitutes a 'victory' must be considered in absolute, rather than relative terms. The 2005 election victory was considered far from overwhelming, but the majority of over 60 seats was substantial by any standard of the past hundred years - it was only comparison with the previous Labour landslides of 1997 and 2001, which resulted in a majority in the hundreds, that made it seem small.

With the caveat in place that a majority of one seat is still a majority, Labour do have a very real chance of winning the election, but a chance that cannot be evaluated easily. Not only will they have a different leader - almost certain to be Gordon Brown - but they will be fighting in a world of which we cannot currently conceive - the events of late 2001, and the invasion of Iraq showed how quickly the world can move, and how political orthodoxy can move into political obsolescence.

The Conservative Party, with their new, young leader will have their best chance in a decade to do well, but they run the risk that he was selected too soon, and his vacous lack of policies will be examined, rather than merely accepted, by the media. Whilst his pronouncements, and shifts in emphasis towards a modern, liberal leaning conservative party have boosted them to the highest position in the polls they have known since their 1992 election victory, they have yet to claim policy positions, and this lack of certainty can boost polls at an early point in an electoral cycle, yet still cripple a party in an election itself.

The third likely possibility, a hung parliament, is eminently possible, but not as likely as either of the two largest parties winning an overall victory. Under the leadership of Menzies Campbell, the Liberal Democrats, vote share would need to increase in order to take enough seats to prevent either of the others from taking a majority. Instead, with a less active leader, and without the Iraq war as a new event to campaign against, they are likely to decline from the 2005 results.

Overall, a Labour victory at the next election is a strong possibility, but far from being certain. There are other possibilities, both for parties to win, or the spectre of a Germany-like 'Grand Coalition', due to no party having a majority.

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