by Festus Sowah

Created on: June 30, 2008   Last Updated: October 31, 2008

On paper, the chances of an African team winning the World Cup in 2010 are higher than it has ever been. This is mainly because the World Cup will be held in South Africa and African players can now match other top players in terms of discipline, achievement and tactical know-how. However, World Cups are not won on paper. The winners of past World Cups have more often been teams of high quality, fantastic support and superior organization rather than hosts.

The level of African football has increased considerably over the past decade or so, due to the exposure of African players to foreign leagues where it is accepted that they have access to better coaching facilities and technology. The talent of the African player has never been in question. They have been let down in the past by inferior team organization, tactical know-how and discipline. Discipline not only refers to their conduct and fair play on the pitch but the discipline to follow instructions and play as a team player rather than an individual.

With exposure to Serie A, the Premiership, La Liga and other top leagues these deficiencies are quickly becoming a thing of the past. The 2008 African Nations Cup was one filled with sublime skill, fantastic team organization and a great deal of fair play - proof indeed that the exposure is paying off. The top African players have a similar quality of life to players from other top football nations across the globe, i.e. they watch what they eat, they keep themselves fit, they earn good money and they play as team players. The African players are renowned for their strength and athleticism which are pre-requisites for the modern game.

These factors do increase the possibility of an African country winning the World Cup no matter which continent it is held. On the flip side however, the probability can be reduced depending on which countries actually make the World Cup. It is folly to believe that just because the World Cup is going to be held on the continent that means an African team will win it. It is like suggesting Switzerland or Austria would win Euro 2008 just because the competition was held in the two countries.

In the eighteen tournaments held so far, only six have been won by host nations. These countries are Uruguay (1930), Italy (1934), England (1966), West Germany (1974), Argentina (1978), France (1998). None of these victories were considered as shocks. If South Africa were to win the 2010 edition, it would be akin to Mugabe apologizing for rigging the recently concluded sham of an election in Zimbabwe. This is almost impossible.

Another point to note is that African teams are quite similar in their style of play. The potential for shocks and upsets is greater than say Europe. Therefore, it is not altogether fantasy to believe that big nations with experience of World Cups like Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Cameroon or Ghana will be eliminated by smaller nations. For example, in the current joint African Nations/World Cup qualifiers, South Africa has lost away and been held to a goalless draw at home by unfancied Sierra Leone. They share joint second place with Sierra Leone and Equatorial Guinea with two matches to go.

The African countries will also have to contend with the other major super powers like Brazil, Germany, Argentina and Italy. These countries have the mentalities to win major tournaments irregardless of where they are held and I don't see this changing in 2010.

While there is no doubt that African teams have improved considerably in recent years, I am not convinced that any of the qualifiers from that continent would be favorites to win. Sure enough the odds have shortened but the chances are still slim.

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