by Alex Li

Created on: June 29, 2008   Last Updated: December 04, 2011

There are countless examples of mathematical models around my neighborhood and in my interests. Math can be found everywhere and it is simply inevitable. Probability is a field in mathematics and it is often perplexing in the beginning. One of my interest's deals with the growing sport of professional poker especially Texas Hold'em and how probabilities are the basis of this game.

When a person plays poker, especially with chips, they face decisions of whether to call, raise, or fold. Professional poker players make these decisions by whether or not the extra chips are worth continuing the game. The way they figure this out is calculating the probability of making a pair, two pair, three of a kind, a straight, a flush, full house, four of a kind, a straight flush, or royal flush depending on the person's starting cards and what hands can be made on the "flop" (first three cards which everyone at the table uses), the "turn" (next card after the flop) or the "river" (last card after the turn). Or, if this person has "a hand", they would calculate the probability of their opponents having a better hand or the best hand possible regarding the flop, turn, and river. Then with this information at hand, their decision of calling, folding, or raising will become much easier because they know their odds and know if it is worth the gamble.

For instance: if my two starting cards were an ace and a two off suit, and the flop was a three, five, and a jack, then the best possible hand I could make at this point would be a straight (ace through five) assuming that the flop was all different suits, therefore taking the flush opportunity away. Therefore, at this point if one of my opponents raised me five dollars, then firstly, I would be calculating my probability of hitting that four on the turn or river which gives me a straight. Since the odds of me getting a four are against me, then I would calculate the probability of me getting a pair of aces because that is the next best hand I could have besides the very unlikely chance that I getting running aces or running twos on the turn and river which is a less than 1% chance. After figuring out the odds of actually hitting one of those top hands, I would usually fold because the chance of me getting some a decent hand that could beat my opponents hand is less than 20%. However, if I was able to read their body language and somehow get the idea that they are bluffing and don't have anything, then I would continue playing. But

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