by Gunter Chang

Created on: June 23, 2008   Last Updated: June 25, 2008

There will be no large scale improvement in the Middle East anytime soon because the fundamental positions of the primary players have not changed. Regardless of how intensive a whirl-wind tour the current lame-duck administration concocts for Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, it is simply impossible to change the political climate in the Middle East in a few short months when there has been little or no progress...or interest...for the past 8 years. Ms. Rice is simply restating the same, obvious issues that have been the status quo for the past decade.

Israel's announcement of new settlements in the West Bank is "new" only in the sense that the houses are new. The issue can be considered "ancient" and not likely to be resolved anytime soon since this new construction is to be located in an area considered to be part of "Jerusalem." The Israeli government policy on West Bank construction is pinned between the desires of ultra-orthodox Jews and the Palestinian's who see the announcement as another policy designed to derail the peace process. Of course, the indiscriminant firing of rockets across the border at Israeli civilians hardly qualifies as a confidence builder in the adequacy of the peace process. It also works against Palestinian requests for the easing of travel restrictions.

The U.S. attention in the Middle East has been primarily focused on Iraq while quietly moving towards confrontation with Iran; the steady deterioration of the peace process between Israel and the Palestinian territories has been on the back-burner so long, it's begun to implode. The corruption scandal involving Olmert has not helped and serves as another source of "drag" on progress, as does the Palestinian leadership's inability to reign in extremists still operating from and inviting retaliation into Palestinian controlled areas. While the U.S. was getting mired down in a civil war in Iraq, Hamas was steadily easing into the political power vacuum left behind following Arafat's death, further complicating the issue. U.S. diplomacy was preoccupied elsewhere while Israel fought a ruinous war with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon that actually emboldened the Iranian backed group. This places Israel in the vulnerable position of being in the cross fire of two militant groups on their borders.
Differences in the details of a "two-state solution' as well as no official acceptance by Iran to Israel's "right to exist" create obstacles to any advancement of peace in the region.

Fearing a dark future with Israel staring down the newly developed nuclear barrel of Iran, still threatening to annihilate the Jewish state, the specter of a pre-emptive strike by Israel, the U.S. or both keeps the region on edge. Any regional conflict between Iran and Israel instantly unravels all progress made to date, and leaves even less behind to build upon. But, there are more fundamental issues than "total war" which create barriers to progress in the region. There are territorial issues, such as who controls the Sea of Galilee, Israel's main source of fresh water, the final status of the Golan Heights, and last but certainly not least, the disposition of the city of Jerusalem. With revered Islamic as well as Jewish holy sites, the philosophical willingness for compromise runs head-on into fervent religious zeal, yielding little movement on either side.

However ambitious any peace plan may be, nothing will cement a true, lasting peace in the Middle East until the all sides make the kind of painful concessions that show genuine conviction to the process. This includes moving away from outdated principles and expectations and into the light of pragmatism and acceptance. And this just hasn't happened yet.

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