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would be more extremes of all types across the world. A general rise in global temperatures would cause more moisture to enter the atmosphere through evaporation, and this would drive an increase in climatic extremes - more and heavier rain, and ironically more droughts in some areas, more frequent and more powerful tropical storms, more heat waves, more strong winds, more tornados, more and larger hail, and so on.

This is what we learned in the seventies could happen, together with a likely melting of polar ice caps, a consequent rise in global sea level, and an increase in incidences of skin cancer due to the amount of dangerous solar radiation reaching the earth's surface as high level ozone levels decrease.

So let us now fast forward to the past ten years. What has been happening?

Are global temperatures falling, as predicted in the sixties? No, in fact they are rising again at unprecedented rates. What else is happening?

Incidences of dangerous hurricanes and tornadoes have increased, and spread to areas previously unaffected.

Rainfall has become heavier in many areas, with subsequent flooding, although in other areas, e.g. sub Saharan Africa and Australia droughts have become more prolonged.

Incidences of prolonged and intense heat waves have increased in western Europe and elsewhere.

Hail falls more frequently and is generally larger than previously recorded.

The polar ice caps are melting, and it is now suggested that the northern polar ice may melt completely during summers in five to ten years time.

Global sea levels are rising, so that a low lying island in Chesapeake Bay has been evacuated permanently and some Indian Ocean and Pacific island nations are facing non-existence in a decade or so.

The results of the other changes are not difficult to evaluate. Hurricanes and tornadoes destroy property and lives. Heavy rain and flooding destroys property, lives and crops. Hail destroys property and crops. Drought prevents food production and causes famine.

So, predictions of the sixties have not materialised, and having learned in the seventies what would be the likely effects of global warming and climate change if certain factors remained unchecked, I find myself watching these very effects occurring all over the world. Do we call this coincidence? Occurrences are too frequent and too extreme for it to be coincidence.

So what do we conclude? Can we call reporting of global warming hype?

Hype is a gross exaggeration of the facts in order to achieve a certain end? George Bush has, until very recently, always denied global warming, because it has been in his and his country's interests to do so. His denial of the facts has been hype, but that was hype against global warming.

Industrial companies of many types have also denied global warming in order to avoid blame and subsequent stricter control of their activities. There reporting of the situation has been hype, again against global warming.

Scientists and lay people have no axe to grind in this scenario, save to record and report what is happening, and to warn of possible consequences. They have no reason to produce hype.

I have recorded here my experiences in relation to predictions made 35 and 45 years ago. Others may call it hype. Come back to my article in twenty or thirty years time and then see what your conclusion is.

Learn more about this author, Keith Redfern.
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