It is definitely not the job of the media to predict future crises or conflicts. And if any predictions are made, they need to be supported by statistical evidence and expert analysis. The media exists to provide facts, and it is from these facts that people will draw their own conclusions. The question is really whether or not the media - as it exists today - is capable of providing just facts without bias. If the facts that Alex Stonehill bases his presumption on in "Off the Record: The Coming World Water Crisis" were reported along with other international news, on the same level of importance, as say the price of oil, then more people could come to the same conclusion without having to resort to opinion pieces. Opinion is not news, and when news becomes opinion, it is no longer ethical to classify as news or journalism. An educated - or at least sensible - person is able to piece together the facts, and weigh them with his or her own knowledge, and come to a conclusion.
The speculations of a panel of experts - in the areas that the article deals with - would be considered newsworthy, the difference being as with the testimonies of an eyewitness and an expert in the court of law. One cannot ask an eyewitness to make statements about an area of expertise that they are not qualified to make. Conversely, an expert who is not an eyewitness cannot make presumptions about the eyewitness testimony, unless there is a conflict of facts. Therefore, a journalist can only do as much as an eyewitness, and coming to conclusions about elements of the story that are purely layman's speculation, then it is not newsworthy in the sense that it could be done by any person who is presented with the same facts, and could possibly reach a different conclusion. What is required when making predictions, especially on a global scale, are expert statements supported by facts. The issue of global warming is not opinionated news, inasmuch as there is a panel of experts that stands behind the assumption that it does exist, and is in fact, occurring. If a single person, without scientific training, traveled around the world for several years, and came to the conclusion that the world is becoming warmer, we could not possibly take those findings on global warming seriously.
The facts in "Off the Record: The Coming World Water Crisis," in simple terms, are that there are people that have different techniques of sustaining their livelihood. It is also factual that agriculture, especially industrial agriculture, diverts natural sources of water through irrigation. It is factual that pastoral farming relies heavily on natural sources of water. But what is not factual, is the assumption these people will inevitably clash over the dwindling water supply. While it is an educated assumption, it is nonetheless an assumption, which cannot be considered news without the backing of statistical data and expert analysis.
Stonehill's article is, essentially, a human interest story, but it is also a call to arms for the general public to demand the fundamental right to objective and balanced reporting, especially on the international scene. If the occurrence of these events were covered as well as what in our media is deemed important news, then the possibility of an impending water crisis might be a conclusion that the public would be aware of, having come to that conclusion as intelligent and sensible people. It is counterproductive to keep the supporting facts out of the media, but then present the assumption as the news instead. That is almost offensive to a certain degree when we are a nation where freedom of the press is a constitutional right.
Connecting the dots and bringing separate events into context is a cornerstone of good journalism, and for that I salute Alex Stonehill, but assumptions do not make for particularly good journalism. Furthermore, it is not necessary to make that step for the public. The primary function of media should be to inform the people, not to shape their views - although, of course, it does - but with freedom of the press comes great responsibility: the ethics must not be forgotten, and the public must be allowed to draw conclusions from unbiased and undiluted facts.
Stonehill, Alex. "Off the Record: The Coming World Water Crisis." The Common Language Project. 2008