by Rich Browne

Created on: June 19, 2008

The question is posed: Why doesn't Hillary Rodham Clinton release her pledged delegates now that her opponent, Barack Obama, apparently has surpassed the magic number to assure himself the nomination on the first ballot at the Democratic Party Convention in Denver?

The better question would be why should she as she has many reasons not to do so. There are no pluses for Clinton to release her delegates and possibly a host of minuses. There are plenty of good political reasons for Clinton to hang on until the first ballot in August because in today's media and political culture things can happen in an instant to change the entire environment.

By retaining her delegates pledged to her, she retains the power to influence the convention in many aspects and will be represented in its many committees. She definitely will be able to have some influence on the party's platform because her delegates will be a substantial part of those committees that draft it.

She also is retaining a hedge. A hedge against Obama making some gaffe between now and the convention that destroys his carefully crafted image and campaign. If not another Rev. Wright episode, Obama young and essentially politically untested still has to walk a political minefield until the first ballot secures his nomination. The odds are with him, but there also is that possibility.

The Republicans already are in General Election mode and they will be slinging all the dirt and mud they can to undermine his candidacy. What if they uncover something, or as Obama already has demonstrated in his candidacy, he strays from his message of the day and says something that totally discredits him. There are so many things between now and the convention that Obama can trip over, that Clinton cynically is wise to retain the pledges of her delegates.

By not releasing her delegates she remains viable as the party's choice for the nomination for president. If she released her delegates, her opponents would have a free hand to draft a new candidate, probably Obama's pick to be vice president, to carry on Obama's message.

And then there is the worst cast scenario, the one no one wants to think about. What if some white supremacist individual or group assassinates Obama? Ok, it is hard to believe in the 21st century that some American would do such a thing, but then is it?

It was hard to believe that 19 Islamic Jihadis would hijack four commercial airliners and fly two of them into the towers of the World Trade Center, the Pentagon and a Pennsylvania field.

Imagine the shock and horror such an assassination of the charismatic Obama would cast over the American electorate.

And there would be Clinton, with her pledged delegates just short of the nomination but probably not the Obama's choice for vice president. She still would have the best claim to be the party's nominee, as she would have in the gaffe scenario. Obama's acolytes and those who fought so hard against Clinton would be almost forced to accept her as the party's nominee.

Clinton gains nothing by releasing her delegates. However, she holds considerable power by keeping her powder dry and retaining control of those delegates.

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