Iran has a highly educated population. Iraq had no impact on the Iranian armed forces during the 8 year long Iran/Iraq war. The Iranian Religious Majlis and the civilian velayat-e-faqih illustrate a modern Church/State dichotomy, this division could be exploited. The United States must learn from the invasion of Iraq and the 5 year long turmoil created in the Middle East.

United States foreign policy since 2003 created a strong, resurgent Iran. Most Iranians under thirty years of age are in awe of U.S. military power which displaced the Taliban in Afghanistan and went on to invade Iraq, remove Saddam Hussein from power and held free elections to install a Shi'ite Iraqi government. Young Iranians are thoroughly pro-Western quickly emulating U.S. rock bands and wearing Western clothing.

Young Iranians are embarrassed by the clownish antics of their President Ahmedjinedad, however any Iranian student protesting at his antics will be denied a place at university. The religious Mullahs are very much against the Iranian President and there is a major conflict looming over control of the Iranian parliament. The religious Mullahs are much more moderate than the strident Ahmedjinedad.

The capital, Tehran has a Bobby Sands Avenue, commemorating the 1981 hunger strikes by Irish republican prisoners in order to secure POW status. U.K. Prime Minister Thatcher refused to concede to their demands. 10 prisoners died needlessly. Iran likes to remind former empires of their demise.

Iran considers itself as one of the three great kingdoms of Asia. Persia, India and China were powerful empires commanding many peoples and tribes. President Ahmedjinedad would like to restore Iran to the status and influence of Darius and the Persian empire. There is little chance of returning to those times, mainly because Iran has an economy the size of Switzerland and cannot afford to challenge the only superpower - the United States - for influence in the region.

Iran operates openly and frequently in Lebanon where Iranian backed Hezbollah outfought the U.S. supplied Lebanese army, took over west Beirut, then withdrew and secured veto rights in the Lebanese Parliament. Lebanon lacked a Prime Minister or a complete government for 18 months. Lebanon now has both.

Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon in 2000 roundly defeated by Iranian backed Hezbollah.

Shi'ite Iran has sent diplomats to Shi'ite Iraq within the last 18 months. The United States arrested five, claiming one was an Iranian Revolutionary Guard leader. He was released after some time in detention. The Revolutionary Guards are a formidable faction in Iranian society. They are composed of students involved in the 1979/80 U.S. Embassy 444 day hostage crisis.

Iranian speed boats pose no threat to U.S. warships in the Persian Gulf. The USS Vincennes shot down an Iranian Airbus en route to Mecca in a heat fog where the IFF (Identification Friend or Foe) failed to operate. Iran has a long memory. There is no reason for an overstretched U.S. military to invade Iran. A decade from now Iran will be rid of anti-Western
rhetoric and the pro-Western generation will be in charge in Iran.

The impetus is on the surrounding Sunni moderate states to limit Iranian Shi'ite influence in the Middle East. Perhaps this will be the stimulus to secure the elusive peace in the region.
References:
Village Magazine www.village.ie
The Times www.times.co.uk
Le Monde www.lemonde.fr
Franfurter Allgemeine Zeitung www.FAZ.de
El Pais www.Pais.es

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