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Are the US and Israel bluffing Iran with an attack to force changes in policy?

by Julia Beirut

Created on: June 06, 2008   Last Updated: June 14, 2008

Ehud Olmert, Prime Minister of Israel, warns Iran of "devastating repercussions" if Iran continues to take action to develop nuclear weapons. Israel takes this strong stand because Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, president of Iran has said "Israel should be wiped off the map." Iran continues to provoke the United States and Israel by taunting the world with its quest to develop nuclear weapons. Iran's president Ahmadinejad is defiant of United Nation's mandates. President Bush's ultimate goal for Iran may be a regime change.

Iran has continued to thwart the efforts of the United Nation's IAEA investigation of its quest to develop nuclear weapons. Iran refuses to discuss the topic further and states it has answered all questions. Iran is also believed to now be able to enrich uranium, a key element in the quest to develop nuclear weapons. Iran is secretive about its plans for nuclear development and yet its president does taunt the world that this plan is underway. Iran is believed to be in violation of the nonproliferation treaty.

With our current administration in place, and also if John McCain is elected, it seems inevitable that a preventive strike will be made on Iran. President Bush and McCain have already implied an attack on Iran may be needed. Some military analysts have implied that planning is already underway for an air attack on Iran. Reconnaissance missions to identify possible air attack plans are most likely already planned. As with any issue of the Middle East, the notion of control of oil assets is always a key issue as well.

Iran's president does not seem to be willing to follow the rules set by the United Nations or to use diplomacy. He makes threats and breaks rules designed to keep the world safe. He is a loose cannon; it is crucial to use diplomacy and the input of the United Nations to ensure that Iran does not attack the United States or Israel.

Iran's citizens are often shown in the media stating that they do not want war. They do not seem to support the adversarial tactics of their president. Their president may seem eager for Armageddon tactics, but Iran's general population disagrees.

Iran is a provocateur in the Middle East. Iran is agitating the Middle East by supplying funding and arms to terrorists in the Iraq War and also in Lebanon and other areas.
It is thwarting the peace in countries that have or seek democracy. Iran is funding terrorists and allowing terrorists to develop strategic planning and training at terrorism in camps in Iran.

Depending upon the personality of the leader in the White House there is a good chance an attack on Iran is imminent. Obama Barack has indicated that he will negotiate with hostile nations. Diplomacy will be his main strategic tool. Thus if he is elected an attack on Iran seems doubtful, unless they attack the United States or Israel first.

However, as long as President Bush is in the White House, or if John McCain is elected, a preemptive attack on Iran seems likely. Iran's president seems to be taunting the world, and particularly Israel and the United States. Iran is even taunting the United Nations by refusing to participate by answering questions about their nuclear development program.

The next election in the United States is critical for determining our future relations with Iran. If McCain wins it seems likely war with Iran is looming. If Obama wins diplomacy with Iran will be the first step. Iran's president is an unstable force in the Middle East. Only time will tell if his actions will force Israel or the United States to take action against Iran.

Learn more about this author, Julia Beirut.
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