by Jason A

Created on: December 23, 2006   Last Updated: April 19, 2007

When trying to predict the future of Iraq, we must view the topic from the nations ethno-religious divisions. Iraq, during Ottoman rule, was divided into three sections: Al-Mosul in the north, Baghdad in the center, and Al-Basra in the south. As I understand it, this was done for administrative reasons, but it also allowed for relative stability as it provided a certain amount of separation between the Kurd's, Sunni's, and Shi'a. When the Ottoman Empire fell after WWI, Iraq was brought together by the British. In the 1950's the Baathists took over the government, which led to Saddam's rise in the late 1970's. The only reason the nation has stayed together for so long is because the population was being suppressed by a ruthless regime.

The Bush Administration, the U.K. and the U.N. have often said they are against breaking the country up; however, I feel it is now inevitable. Until the bombing of the Mosque in Summara, the main problem in the country was the various terrorist organizations. That attack has succeeded in creating an environment of civil war (whether you call it a civil war or sectarian violence is mere semantics at this point). Until that point the Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani was able to keep the Shi'a from lashing out against the Sunni's. After that, Sistani's ability to contain Shia discontent has been completely marginalized. During the violence that took place in Baquba, he was not successful in stopping the fighting between the Mahdi Army and Iraqi forces; this was accomplished by Muqtada Al-Sadr (because the Mahdi Army is his personal militia; and stands to gain considerable from a weakened Sistani and continued civil war), whom I affectionately refer to as 'Muqi'...but I digress. Since this time, Sistani has said he is no longer involving himself in the nations politics and has admitted he can no longer reign in the Shiites. This allows people like 'Muqi' to take a central role in the politics and opinions of their people; and as I mentioned he has gained considerable power and influence because of this (his 'political party' provides Al-Maliki enough power that the government will not interfere, let alone disarm his militia).
I think we all know that Al-Qaeda and the Mujaheed Al-Shura Council (which encompasses most of the Sunni led Iraqi terrorist organizations) are no longer as concerned with coalition forces, they appear have turned their attention towards expanding the sectarian violence, but with a lower profile since Al-Zarqawi

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