US Election 2008: Divided Dems & the General Election

After two terms of political disadvantage in Congress and the presidency, the Dems seem poised for a rebound. But the ongoing Democratic primary has many worried that the party will collapse in its preparation for the general election.

After a big North Carolina loss and slim Indiana victory, Senator Clinton faces an impossible task of turning the primary around with little time to spare.

It's not that easy: she cannot be too negative in her campaigning in the last throws of the Democratic primary. If she is, she will alienate herself from her last hope: Superdelegates. If she plays nice, many remaining superdelegates will sit on the sidelines until the end of the contest. Of course, Clinton cannot sacrifice too much ferocity. It's a difficult balancing act to master in a few weeks and Obama is closing the superdelegate gap in the meantime.

To make matters worse for Clinton, there are no more policy issues to debate. Those positions were meshed out months ago. Even if she wanted to discuss the issues in a public forum, Obama is strategically in a comfortable position and has already refused more debating. If you want direct information about the candidates' and the issues, their respective websites is your only venue.

Clinton's last shot is to convince superdelegates that she is more electable despite the pledged delegate count. Clinton argues the numbers only make sense when factoring demographics into the equation.

After the Indiana and North Carolina results, Hillary bluntly told USA Today that "hard-working white Americans" "who had not completed college" are supporting her in both of those states. That hardly sounds like the inspirational rebuttal Obama supporters have come to expect in the aftermath of setback. The media has already criticized her for the statement, but what else is to be expected between now and June 3rd? Clinton's only table-turning ammunition at this stage is demographic data.

If Clinton's only strategy for the nomination is to invoke racial and socioeconomic labels in order to make her case for the general election, it is difficult to see how such a scheme wouldn't create division in the party.

The real question is whether a demographic debate is divisive enough to sway Democrats to McCain's side.

A recent Gallup poll showed that 28% of Clinton supporters would defect if Obama went on to the general election. The same

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