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The outcome of the war in Iraq was determined long ago, leaving the eventual winner of the 2008 election for president to finalize what involvement the United States will continue as the military personnel are withdrawn. Maintaining the peace, basically a police action, has been our involvement ever since Saddam Hussein's troops retreated, along with their leader.

American involvement the past several years has been trying to organize peace in a nation unable, or unwilling to do it themselves. The leadership vacuum created by Hussein's removal has been more critical than anyone anticipated. Finally, a line has been drawn in the sand, and Iraqi leaders realize that they must step up to do things for themselves.

Results of the United States presidential election in November will determine our future "mission" in Iraq, since the president gets to set the military mission as Commander in Chief. Since most knowledgeable Middle East experts deem Iraq stability to be an issue of our national security, our next president will probably have little choice but to continue the American presence in Iraq, regardless of political posturing prior to the actual election.

Our road to withdrawal, and under whose leadership after the new president takes office will affect several factors that will be important. The militant Shiite cleric, Muktada al-Sadr has been the biggest factor causing violence in Iraq over the past year. Assumed to be in Iran, he might order his Mahdi army to put down their arms and join the rest of Iraq in peace.

Mr. al-Sadr might prefer a President Obama over a President McCain, or President Clinton because he might perceive more possibility of returning to Iraq to quietly centralize his power in Baghdad. With strong ties to Iran, al-Sadr is the biggest unknown in Iraq today. He might be willing to negotiate with the other religious factions for his share of power if there were a continuing American presence under the command of a "no monkey business" leader.

The voices of the American people have been heard regarding finalizing the Iraq involvement. It appears that the voices of our leadership have been heard in Baghdad by President Maliki. Everyone knows that we are leaving the future of Iraq for them to determine. Our presidential election provides the opportunity to officially begin disengaging, regardless of who signs the official orders in the White House. It is about time!

Learn more about this author, Bob Schmidt.
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