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After twenty-plus years, we know all there is to know about John McCain. There are no skeletons in his closet that are going to jump out and cause him election-eve problems. Barack Obama, on the other hand, seems to have a skeleton in every closet in the house. From Rezko to Rev. Wright to William Ayers, they just keep popping up, and you can bet there are things that the Republican war machine knows that they have no intention of releasing until the general election in the fall.

John McCain has infinitely more experience than Obama, and this will hurt Obama's chances. Obama has tried to minimize the actual leadership experience of Hillary Clinton, but he won't be able to do this with McCain. McCain has also shown the ability to fight back from the brink of defeat, and has lived in the media fishbowl where every word is dissected and every move analyzed. The area where Obama has shown his inexperience the most is in his careless comments and complaining about scrutiny. If he thinks Clinton's been hard on him, he should talk to John Kerry and Michael Dukakis about how nice the Republicans will be.

Obama built his delegate lead by winning states the Democrats will find nearly impossible to win in November. Ten of the states he won have not voted for a Democrat for President in a generation or more. Alaska, Kansas, Idaho, Utah, North Dakota, Nebraska, and Wyoming last voted for a Democrat in 1964, Mississippi in 1968, and Alabama and South Carolina in 1976. Furthermore, McCain has won the big states that must be in play for the Democrats to win: California, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, and New Jersey. While Hillary Clinton has done well in these states, Barack Obama has not.

In large states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and New Jersey, Barack Obama did well in heavily African-American districts, but showed very poorly among Catholics, white working-class voters, and women. In November, a large number of these voters would choose McCain over Obama, especially the blue-collar voters Obama has had difficulty with in his race with Hillary Clinton. And while the 90% of African-American votes he is winning give him victories in the Democratic nomination race, they will have a much smaller impact in the general election.

Also, there are no caucuses in November. Obama has won all but one state that determined its delegates by caucus (including Texas, which used an insane primary/caucus system). He garnered 307 delegates as a result of caucus victories. The most telling state is Texas, where Clinton soundly defeated him in the primary but lost the caucus. Caucuses may indeed show how well organized a candidate is locally, but primaries use the method we use in the general election.

Lastly, Obama's self-described "problem with seniors" will continue as they flock to John McCain, who certainly does understand them. Obama's comments about Pennsylvania's working class voters being bitter and clinging to guns and religion will not be forgotten by those working class voters. And the Independents that are helping Obama so much now may very well return to McCain in November. He has, after all, been something of a maverick since before Obama was born and has always done well with Independents.

The smoke and mirrors that has been the Obama campaign is finally starting to unravel, and despite early enthusiasm generated by his stirring speeches, it seems unlikely that he can defeat John McCain in the general election in November.

Learn more about this author, Bruno Somerset.
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