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This one is tricky. In my eyes if there is one area where McCain has an advantage over his upcoming opponent Obama it is the fact that us already being in Iraq lends credibility to his stance on that particular issue. It is sick but it's true. I think Iraq is certainly going to be one of the top three and quite possibly the major issue in the upcoming general election.
Conversely one can say that Obama will have a huge advantage in terms of being the true Anti Iraq War candidate, consistent on this issue form the beginning. So he has to be the favorite to win the general election even despite of the fact that due to his race this would be a historic achievement. But there is one thing I am not sure I like about him, his newfound ultimatum to bring the troops back home by spring of 2008!
I did not expect him to cement his reputation to withdrawal the same way Bush staked his to starting the war in the first place. If Iraq falls into total chaos and its infrastructure stays shattered then slowly but surely the blame for that country's condition will ebb over to him. I think it is a mistake.
McCain has a chance to be a republican hero. Look, at some point Iraq has to get better. The democratic model is a solid one, even if in our incarnation is prone to becoming hampered by partisanship and in theirs prone to outright repression. If they significantly improve under his watch he will look like the man who saved a bad idea and made it brilliant. If he could somehow get Iraq thriving, what then?
I seriously doubt that will happen but that is the dream they are going to be selling. What I do think is that the infrastructure needs to be reinforced,that even though we freed them we should not let the empowered Shiite's persecute their Sunni brethren,and that their security needs to be strong enough to withstand attacks we helped make possible. McCain's approach seems more likely to see these concepts through.
I like Obama more as a person but always had an uneasy feeling he would forget what made this war a bad idea to begin with and fail to realize that the truth of that also constitutes the reason why we should not leave Iraq now. I hate to say it but he needs to act as he would if he had made the decision himself. Leaving now might well compound issues-this is McCain's only chance.
We were wrong to go to begin with. McCain was wrong to want to go. It was a bad decision for exactly the reason that democrats want to withdraw our troops. Because things seem hopeless, are costing more every day and there is no end in sight. So at least when McCain says "We will stay there one hundred years if we have to" you can respect him for being consistent.
Regardless of which candidate gets elected there is not much to get hopeful about over there. I think we have locked ourselves into a nightmare there is no getting free of and that the best approach is to empathize with these people from what is now a third world country that we have adopted as a nation and go from there. It is just a matter of finding out what solution helps them the most and never wavering.
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US elections 2008: Assessing the impact of the election on the outcome of the war in Iraq
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