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The concept of prediction markets

I bet the Cubs will win the World Series this year. I believe gold will be selling for less than nine-hundred dollars an ounce by the first of November (so I place a bet on it by selling it short in the futures market). I think the price of General Motors stock is undervalued so I am buying it. My job is to invest my company's resources wisely in spare parts for a peculiar type of equipment. We have a lot of this equipment. It does get heavy use and wears out parts that are sometimes in short supply because of competition with other uses. (I effectively have to gamble on how many parts to order with the possible outcome that the investment may never be used.) I'm a professional golfer and regularly invest in tournament entry fees that pay off in prize money. Gambling has consistently been identified with having an element of risk, an uncertain outcome, and some element of skill required by the participant. Society consistently considers gambling to be undesirable or at least associated with other evils and all states either outlaw it outright or at least regulate it.

But, sometimes the "gamble" is a little bit subtle. Most states now require liability insurance as a condition for driving an automobile on public highways. Other types of bets such as on the likelihood of dying or getting killed or having one's house burn are more discretionary. However, this manifestation of gambling is usually not classified as such and is regulated by state insurance commissions or some other state organization.

If this potpourri of situations appears confusing, it is because it is. Before the age of the Internet, anyone participating in one of those or like activities would be answerable to the particular state in which it occurred. With the advent of cyberspace, every state and protectorate can make a valid claim of jurisdiction. The organization of the United States has provided some measure of relief from this confusion for some of the above situations. When there is some tangible underlying goods represented, such as with stock certificates or commodity futures contracts, there are federal organizations and regulations in place that take precedent over the variety of state laws and claims of jurisdiction. But what about those situations where there is no underlying tangible assets involved?

Such events are represented by questions such as, Will there be a significant reduction in refinery capacity due to hurricane shutdown this season? Will


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The concept of prediction markets

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    by Jim Neiers

    I bet the Cubs will win the World Series this year. I believe gold will be selling for less than nine-hundred dollar... read more

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