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will keep us fit. We go outside because we know we will not spontaneously fly off into the sky. We go to work because we know that we'll get fired if we don't. We're so good with our basic future-predicting skills that we hardly even need to think about them before we act on them.

Specialized predictive abilities stretch even further than this. A mechanic can predict that a particular assembly of pieces of rubber and metal will make a car move down the road seamlessly. A geneticist can predict that a particular combination of chromosomes, if allowed to repeatedly copy themselves in sexual reproduction, will produce a specific animal with specific traits. A good writer can predict that his sentimental story will cause many of his readers to shed a tear. This goes on to apply to any job description. Human predictive abilities are impressively vast and complex.

Of course, we aren't always right. We act kindly toward others with the expectation that the same others will return the kindness. This isn't always true, but it's true more often than not, so we keep acting nicely. It is reasonable to bet on such a consequence, so we do.

In our reasonable future-predicting capabilities, we are far, far more prone to reliable accuracy than are self-proclaimed seers, psychics, clairvoyants, and the like. For some reason, however, we are nonetheless prone to falling for their suspicious tricks and forgetting about our own honest ones.

Such people claim to be able to predict those things our reasoning minds can't reach. A 'psychic' may predict the date or year of a cataclysmic social disaster, or the disease a loved one will die from, or where to find your soul mate. While believing them is tempting, as they would bring great security if true, such predictions can not be shown to be more reliable than mere guesses.

We're prone to being fooled by 'seers' and put a lot of work into finding meaning where there is none. The writings of Nostradamus are so vague as to be practically meaningless, but anyone can find "uncanny" coincidences in the work if she tries hard enough: elements of language blend into one another in metaphor and meaning. Many words can be connected to one another by many others, very easily.

A psychic earns his paycheck by making vague statements like "Such-and-such person is going to get up and leave," into which much can be read, and much can fit. Does this mean the person will die? Will she move to another country, or a house across the street? Will she walk out of a room in anger, only to come back minutes later to continue an argument? Will she abandon her child, or maybe a pet? Or will she have a spiritual dream of visiting another world?

What is it she is leaving, and where does she go? Neither of these important points is provided, making potential answers practically endless. The psychic, in other words, makes his customers do all the work for him, and unknowing customers are enthusiastically willing to abide. While unable to actually act on what the "seer" says due to his vagueness, his customer adjusts his prediction to fit the circumstances. This is the very essence of confirmation bias.

The best way to predict the future, in other words, is to consider your mental nugget of healthy skepticism a prized tool, and use it frequently.

Learn more about this author, Currie Jean.
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