by Currie Jean

Created on: May 01, 2008

Somehow, most of us have gotten it into our heads that we have a definite choice: either people can predict the future with psychic revelations, or people can't predict the future at all.

The first option is rather negative: it suggests that a game is being played in which some players can't explain the rules to the others. Some people are "seers," and some are not - their only choice is to put their faith in the seers and hope for the best. That's what trusting the supernatural is all about, after all: belief without full (some say sufficient) explanation.

The second option isn't any better. If none of us can predict the future, we're floating, helplessly, through a world of absolute coincidence, in the company of frauds who only pretend to be able to "see."

Many people often forget about the third, and best, option. The truth is that, given the right tools (be they our brains themselves, or the implements we create), we are all able to predict the future in a way that is reliable enough to be worthwhile - in fact, we wouldn't be able to function without such an ability. This fact is so obviously true that, when feeling credulous, we often forget about it - and forget how helpful and reliable it is.

In his Christmas lectures of 1991, and on many occasions since, the popular biologist Richard Dawkins demonstrated an impressive ability to predict the future. He strung a heavy bowling ball from the hall ceiling, letting it hang at about waist-height. He then pulled the ball with him towards the nearest wall and held the ball to the tip of his nose.

Then, he let go of the ball.

The ball swung outward. At a potentially damaging speed, it came back toward him. Mr. Dawkins didn't move a muscle; in fact, he appeared totally relaxed, when many members of his live audience were surely holding their breath.

We can thank Newton for the knowledge of how, and why, the ball swung back just short of Mr. Dawkins' nose. He showed an ability to predict the future using means that could have cost him the solidity of his face, at the very least, had he happened to be wrong.

This case is special only because of the style of its presentation: the human future-predicting ability was put to a serious, counterintuitive test, and it succeeded. Further, knowledge of laws guaranteed it to succeed.

We all use similar learned future-predicting capabilities every day. We don't jump in front of speeding trains because we know they will rip us apart. We exercise and eat healthily because we know it

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