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Having worked quite recently in IT support for a major computer manufacturer it is obvious to me that most businesses will eventually move to Windows Vista. Some will do so more quickly than others but, in the inexorable advance of the Microsoft machine, nearly all will have to at some point.

The reasoning for this is quite simple. Eventually Microsoft will discontinue support of XP. Just as support has been completely ended for Windows 95 and Windows NT, and is quickly dwindling for Windows 2000, eventually all support for Windows XP will be discontinued. When this happens that operating system will no longer be a viable option for businesses. Microsoft ended retail sales of Windows XP by the end of June, 2008 and go into "extended support" in April, 2009. Soon there will be very limited support available for XP and no software updates other than critical security patches. Complete elimination of all support for Windows XP is planned to occur in 2014.

Even before the time support is ended for this product, however, most businesses will be forced to move to Vista or an alternate operating system. As new releases of software are brought out there will be less and less compatibility with older operating systems and the compatibility with Vista will increase. Even if business have no compelling reason to change operating systems now, the reasons to switch will increase, and the arguments against converting will decrease. This has occurred with every release of a new operating system from Microsoft, even amid similar concerns and complaints to those we're hearing about Vista today.

So, there is no question as to whether or not most businesses will move to Windows Vista, the only question is when will they do so. There are different scenarios for the times when this will occur depending on the businesses in question.

Small and agile technology-based businesses are likely to be the earliest adopters of this operating system. If their software is compatible with Vista many have likely already changed. And, as new versions of software that can take advantage of new features of the operating system are released, more and more of these companies will make the conversion.

The next stage in business transition to Vista is likely to be the major technology companies, including computer manufacturers like Dell, HP and IBM. With their close relationships with Microsoft, and a desire to flagship the product they are selling to customers, they have every incentive to make the transition as quickly as possible. The only thing holding them back at this point is the testing of images and software compatibility to ensure they can provide adequate support to their users and have a stable platform to maintain productivity.

The last adopters will probably be the old behemoths of capitalism, the companies that view technology as simply a tool to accomplish their primary business. This would include banks and finance companies, large oil and gas companies and the like. These types of businesses are far more concerned with stability and reliability and are often resistant to technological changes. But, even most of these businesses will eventually have to move to Vista.

There will certainly be holdouts. Some businesses won't spend the money, some are even still running long discontinued Windows 98. Others have applications that won't run on newer operating systems. Also, there will be some number of companies that will drop Microsoft altogether moving to open source or Apple products. However, all of these will be a tiny minority.
Ultimately, most businesses will move to Vista.

Learn more about this author, Keith Hamburger.
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