by Jillian Zabelin

Created on: April 29, 2008   Last Updated: April 30, 2008

Whether you like it or not, Tibet is an official part of China. In fact at various times in history, Tibet has been under Chinese rule for centuries. Now I'm not here to debate the merits of Chinese "occupation" as the West likes to call it, but rather to explore the unlikely scenario of a free Tibet and what it means to the Tibetan people.

Let's say that Tibet one day becomes a free state by Western standards, self-rule, self-governed, by a spiritual leader or an elected government, what sort of a free state will it be?

Let's first consider its economy. Deserts cover much of Tibet. Its agricultural production is limited by the extreme temperatures. With the scarcity in resources, you can imagine that there will be much land grabbing by the few resourceful as it has happened in pre-Chinese Tibetan history. Those with lands presided over those without. A few people will have a windfall through the process and become the Oligarchs of the future much similar to what happened in the former Soviet Republics). I'm not saying that a free Tibet will return to serfdom but the limited resource does pose a problem to its increased population. Corruption will naturally run rampant. Of course there is always tourism, but political instability of a newly independent country could put that part of the economy in jeopardy.

Its politically nascent government will be more likely than not easily influenced, bought, and pressured. As we have already seen in Tibetan history, it was manipulated over and over again, by the Chinese, the British, the American CIA, and finally the Chinese again. Tibet will have a nominally free government, but I suspect it will always be controlled via proxy by most likely, the Chinese, its closest neighbor, simply from trade pressure point of view. The CIA will always keep a foot in there as well to maintain the balance of power in that region, and from time to time stir up trouble to keep China on her toes.

Standards of living will most likely drop for the average as it did with the former Soviet Republics. When there is not a planned path for independence (as in the case of Iraq and the former Soviet Republics), when political continuity is interrupted, history has taught us that a country usually falls into turmoil. For how long, who knows? The Chinese and the Tibetans are so mixed up in the region, that you would expect there would be much ethnic clash. It would hardly escalate to the scale of the Palestinian/Israeli conflict, because the Chinese for the most part has been focusing on the practical things like the economy and has more or less benefitted the Tibetan people in terms of quality of living. There is not much religious hatred since Chinese doesn't care much about religion. So when I say ethnic clash, it's more like nationalistic clash. That would be inevitable even judging from today's events. If you fault the Chinese government for using force to quell such unrest, the alternative of doing nothing could possibly cost even more. One would wonder what sort of tactics a Buddhist government would use for peace keeping. Remember not all Tibetans believe in non-violent protests, so you can't count on peace in that region just because they're Buddhists.

No peace, no tourism, no economy. And so we come full circle. Tibetan independence is full of questions than answers. Shangri-la is all it is, a colorful dream, yet shrouded in dark clouds when the rosy glasses come off.

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