by Bruce Johnson

Created on: April 27, 2008

The problem with the question is the presence of the word 'ever'. In the strictest sense, there should be little argument that, at some point in the future, maps will become an anachronism. They are bulky, prone to tearing, awkward to search and ultimately not the best way to answer many of the inquiries that someone using a map really wants answered. Questions like "Which way will get me there the fastest taking the current traffic into consideration?" "Which route is the most scenic?" "Which route goes past the most antique shops (or pubs...your personal choice for important criteria will depend on your inclinations ;))

When you get done to it, these are the reasons that conventional maps will go away. They will stop being useful. They can only answer a couple of questions and these are rarely the most important questions that a navigator wants answered. They have been used until now because there were no alternatives. But that is in the process of changing. Ten years from now, you won't be able to purchase a new car that doesn't have a built-in GPS system. And while that is fine for your car, it's still not enough to kill off maps completely. That will happen when you carry around a map with you all the time...in your cell phone.

That will be the tipping point for GPS over conventional maps. When your cell phone lets you easily answer all of the questions that a map cannot, there will no longer be a need for a map. This isn't to say that all printing of maps will stop. The Yellow Pages are still printed, even though the vast majority of the information contained inside is more readily accessible on the Internet. Newspapers are also in the process of going through this disruptive process. And at the end of the road, the industry will not look anything like it does now.

The same will happen with map publishers. They will be force to adopt to the new technology and the habits of their clients. Those that make the shift will survive. Those that won't will be added to the rosters of companies that 'used to matter'. A list that contains such luminaries as Digital Equipment Corporation, most railroad companies, Western Union (twice...first, they could have purchased the patent on the telephone and second, they failed to foresee the impact of technology on messaging). It hasn't happened to map companies yet. It might not happen in the next five years. But make no mistake...it will happen. And all of us will benefit when it does, because that is the legacy of disruptive technologies.

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