by Paul Schingle

Created on: April 24, 2008

From a horse-race aspect, the 2008 Democratic National Convention could be very interesting. As for our nation's future, it could be one of the most critical conventions in memory. No matter what happens, I suppose the Democrats will end up running an unprecedented someone for the highest office in the land. We'll either have the first female or the first African-American at the head of a major-party ticket. This is a big deal, but the Democrats should take great heed. It needs to stop being about "the first" anything and start being about who can serve the country's best interests. If the Democrats are truly democratic, they need to listen to the voice of the people-the majority of the people.

This race has see-sawed back and forth from the beginning. To an unbiased observer this has made great fanfare-great television. Before January, almost no one had heard of Barack Obama. Hillary Clinton was the candidate with the name, the reputation and the history of the national spotlight. Suddenly, Obama won Iowa and people started to take notice. New Hampshire, not to be outdone, turned the tables when all polls showed otherwise, and voted for Clinton. If New Hampshire had chosen Obama, the rest of the process would have been a foregone conclusion. But, now, contest by contest and state by state it goes back and forth. Great spectacle, but is it good for the country? Only time will tell.

When all is said and done, the choice really comes down to two things. The Democrats can choose choose between the standard, run-of-the-mill, pro-union same ol' same ol' Democrat (Clinton) and the visionary who's not afraid to speak his mind, even when the idea is unpopular. The lines are pretty clearly drawn and it's dividing the party-possibly irreparably(Obama). Clinton is getting the white, uneducated blue-collar vote. Obama is getting the black vote and the better educated white male vote. And neither seems to be making solid in-roads into the other's power base. If things remain the way they are, Obama should have a lead (but not a majority) in states won, total raw popular vote and delegate count. Since his lead won't be a majority, the so-called super-delegates will decide the outcome. These are your classic party insiders. They tend to be more traditional and that would seem to bode well for Clinton. If the super-delegates end up backing Clinton when Obama has earned more votes than she has, it could end up dividing the party so badly, it gives the election to McCain.

So, there you have it in a nutshell. The first national convention in forty years to actually be interesting. And, it could have the exact same result as the 1968 convention. The Democrats may end up showing that they have no guts whatsoever, as they did in '68, and back Hillary Clinton and give the election to the Republicans. Or, they can show that they want to make meaningful change and go with Obama. But, at this stage of the game, the party may be so badly divided that it won't matter. This convention could conceivably be the beginning of the end for the Democratic party. And, in the end, that may not be such a bad thing.

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