The Toronto Raptors and Orlando Magic are by far the worst match-up in the Eastern Conference. There is little to no way that the Raptors can survive this series - which is sad, as they are a fun team to watch and an exciting team for the future.
THE POSITION BREAKDOWN
CENTER
Rasho Nesterovic (7.8 PPG 4.8RPG)
VS
Dwight Howard (20.7 PPG 14.2RPG)
Nesterovic has shown monthly improvement this year and has shown a quickness that has not been witnessed since his days in Minnesota. His minutes stayed the same but he ended the year up across the board and also cut down on his fouls - he still only goes half the game, but he is productive.
Backing him up is Primoz Brezec, who has fallen WAY off from his Bobcat days. In 2005 this was a 13 PPG and 7.4 RPG player, and now he is not even getting 4 points and 2 boards per game.
Bosh also plays some minutes at center - giving us the match up we are looking for this series.
Howard is the BEST frontcourt player in the East save Kevin Garnett - and for some stretches he even approaches Duncan as the best frontcourt player in the NBA. (Yes, that includes LeBron - I will take the best center in the NBA over the best offensive shooting forward since Dr J...)
Howard has the complete game, though his big weakness is that he does not pace himself during games and tries to do too much. He then seems to pull back too much and disappears for a time, as if he is playing either full-bore or at only fifty percent during the game.
Bo Outlaw and Adonal Foyle are on the roster but never see the floor, so the few minutes that are not taken by Howard are used by one of the forwards sliding over, either Hedo or Lewis.
Advantage: Orlando
POWER FORWARD
Chris Bosh (22.3 PPG 8.7RPG)
Vs
Rashard Lewis (18.2PPG 5.4 RPR)
Bosh is one of the better power forwards in the league, coming from the same draft class as James and Wade. He has not reached the level of those players yet, but he has also not had the supporting cast of those players either. Bosh is in for a hard series - if he gets too hot, the Magic can slap Howard on him... but he should have his way with Lewis.
Lewis, meanwhile, was THE free-agent catch of the off-season and has not lived up to expectations. He is the second free agent Orlando has signed to a big money deal which so far has not lived up to expectations. Unlike Grant Hill, though, Lewis has played well, but his scoring and rebounding numbers have dropped. Lewis has a chance to do well this series as Bosh may not know if Howard is taking him this trip or Lewis - and that should give Lewis more energy on the offensive end.
Neither player takes much time off so backups here are mostly fill-ins or a three-forward front.
Advantage: Toronto (unless Howard shifts)
SMALL FORWARD
Jamario Moon (8.5PPG 6.2 RPG)
VS
Hedo Turkoglu (19.5PPG 5.7RPG)
Moon is VERY up and down but is a nice surprise... if he settles down and builds for next year. He is a MUCH better rebounder than most players his height and plays without any fear - he seems to be having fun and that spirit seems to carry him.
Hedo is going to win his first piece of hardware with the Most Improved Player trophy this year, with improvement in points, rebounds, assists and even his blocks, as well as all three shooting stats. His defense has even picked up as he seems to mesh with the Magic's system more so than last year.
Advantage: Orlando, as Hedo keeps his run going
SHOOTING GUARD
Anthony Parker (12.5PPG 2.2APG)
VS
Maurice Evans (9.3PPG 1.0APG)
This match-up might actually provide the best chance for the Raptors to steal a game. Parker and his backup Kapono can both hit from three-point range, and both have no fear of missing a few in a row. If the Raptors can get ANY rebounding up front or can get Howard in foul trouble, both might have the green light to shoot and shoot often. Parker has been steady the last two years in Canada.
Evans has improved during the year but is one of the weak spots in the Magic lineup. He suffers from the quick hook as well - if his shot is not falling or he is getting beat by Parker, then Bogans will not be sitting long.
Advantage: Toronto... Parker knows he is going to play, while Evans has to look over his shoulder and learn to play playoff ball - far too much pressure for a player on his third team in three years
POINT GUARD
TJ Ford (12.1 PPG 6.1APG)
VS
Jameer Nelson (10.9PPG 5.6APG)
In this match up the further you move from the basket the less important the match up gets. It seems Ford is FAR from his Texas days and was a MAJOR disappointment with the Bucks, even when healthy. He is not going to be looked at to lead this team - but he IS a gamer and is completely ego-free. With such a young team (only two players over 30 have cracked 1000 minutes this year) Jose is the other side of the coin - a rookie who is willing to step up and lead the team and wants to make it his own. Ford responded a bit early on in the season, but if both men were rookies Ford would be DEEP on the bench, where he will be next year.
Nelson has been in Orlando for four years, easily outdoing his 20th overall pick and is not someone replaced easy. However, he is also not a player you would sign and say my point guard problems are over. He has a good bit of experience with his teammates and meshes with the system well. 10 PPG and 5 RPG is not bad at all for a 20th pick - but for a starting point guard on a team with hopes of being a dark horse contender, that is NOT good. Arroyo has bounced from team to team but seems to have found a home with his sixth team.
Advantage: Toronto
Overall, the Raptors do take three of the five spots in a head-to-head positional analysis... but none are as clear as the Magic dominance at the other two positions. This is why a simple position breakdown will not tell the tale here. If these two teams played a hundred times, the Magic would not lose more than a dozen. Their main issue is that the Raptors rank 29th in the league on the glass, and that takes away their strengths - three-point shooting. This is thanks mostly to the BUST that is former number-one overall pick Andrea Bargnani, who is getting less than 4 boards a game. If he could grab three times that, or even take the pressure off Bosh so he could get four more boards a game, then the Raptors could make this a series.
But he can't, so the Raptors have no shot.
FINAL PREDICTION: Orlando in FIVE