by Scott Reichel

Created on: April 23, 2008

Calculating odds in the NBA playoffs comes down to a question of risk versus reward. Would you risk $100 on the Atlanta Hawks to win the NBA Championship? Probably not. But if you have a chance to win much more than $100 in return - if you are given "odds" - then there may be a level at which the reward is worth the risk. This is the level that the odds makers are searching for, the level at which you might actually consider betting on the Hawks.

Two categories of odds are typical in the playoffs: the likelihood of a team to win the NBA Championship, and the likelihood of a team winning (or losing) a single playoff game or series.

Championship odds are usually expressed as a ratio, with the amount you stand to win coming first and the amount you are wagering coming second. The Boston Celtics are generally regarded as betting favorites in the 2008 playoffs, and you might see their odds expressed as 3:2. That means you would win $3 on a $2 bet, or $30 on a $20 bet, and so forth. Ever wonder why everybody loves an underdog? Place that $100 bet on the Hawks at 200:1 odds, and you'll find out pretty quickly.

Single game and single series odds are usually shown as a positive or negative number in relation to $100. Take the Phoenix-San Antonio opening round series as an example. The defending champion Spurs were regarded as slight favorites going into the match up, and their odds to win the series might have looked like this: -180. In that case, the negative number indicates you would need to bet $180 on the Spurs in order to win $100. The odds for the Suns, however, might have looked like this: +155. The positive number means that you would win $155 on a $100 bet.

So, who is responsible for the initial numbers, or "opening odds," in the first place?

Individuals or organizations, often referred to as "bookies" or "sportsbooks," set the opening odds at a point intended to draw the maximum total of bets. In that respect, opening odds have no single formula; instead, they depend on the betting public's general perception of which teams are more likely to win.

Once the odds are set and the betting opens, the odds will move based on where people are risking their money. If a lot of people bet on the Hawks to win it all, then the sportsbooks taking those bets will start to lower the odds, thinking that the potential reward is more attractive than it needs to be. Likewise, if no one is tempted to bet on the Celtics, even though their chances of winning seem reasonable, the sportsbooks will have to raise the odds to draw out those bets.

Before a single game or series, a lot of money bet on a team can cause that team's odds to move noticeably in a short period of time, sometimes right up until tip-off. The odds makers try to ensure balanced betting on both teams, and to do that the odds remain fluid until the game starts.

A high volume of balanced betting is important to the sportsbooks because a "house cut," which is usually built into those odds, means they aren't really gambling. The best odds of all in the NBA Playoffs are that the sportsbooks will make money no matter who wins.

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