by Mamoud Sadre

Created on: April 17, 2008   Last Updated: April 19, 2008

President Bush as well as Secretary of Defense and US military all have made it clear that Iran is the most serious impediment to Iraq's stability. Iran is also said to have been responsible for hitting the Green Zone area killing Americans. The consensus among the Administration is that Iran wants to create or maintain chaos. What is less clear, however, is the quantitative assessment of the "Iran factor". There are several areas of interest that Iran and US are at odds; yet in some cases their interests- at least regionally- overlap that should be analyzed.

Iran's long and complex cultural ties with Iraq is perceived as threat to establishing a democracy.

Iran's radical theocratic regime is a threat to Israel's security

The most obvious threat that Iran poses for the United States is the Persian Gulf dominance. The fact that Iran has close to 2000km of shore line can not be ignored.

Iran's nuclear ambition is a threat to regional stability

The first two issues:Iran's role in stabilizing Iraq and the security of Israel need more immediate attention. What are Iran's interests in Iraq? Iran definitely does not want to see another Iraqi dictator. Iran's own system of government- theocracy notwithstanding, has proved to be consultative rather than one-man show. Iran also would not benefit from Iraq's partitioning for obvious reason that its Kurdish population will cause serious problem for central government. What remains is which political party should prevail. Iran can not have any "influence" over internal politics of Iraq because that would require real occupation and beyond. Iran does not possess the means of exporting its brand of government because they have failed to prove their system of governing works.

Iran can not seriously be considered an impediment to Israeli-Arab conflict for the same reason that applied to Iraq. They lack the expertise of manipulating political factions. Simply throwing money to groups will not lead to a concrete political gains. Neither Hezbollah, nor Hamas has been able to assert themselves. Iran is basically hoping for an enhanced bargaining position- or as the saying goes: Getting some respect.

Back in 1970-71 when British pulled out, Nixon Administration "invited" the Shah to joint the US for policing the Gulf. About the same time the US Government encouraged and supported Iran's joining the nuclear club. What mattered at the time was the Shah was a friend and therefore trustworthy.

The common thread in all of this exercise is detente between US and Iran leading to a "Grand Bargain" that would impact the region's political landscape akin to China's in 1971.

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