Can newly acquired Kevin Garnett lead the Boston Celtics to an NBA title in the 2007/2008 season?

No

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by Eliot Godwin

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Boston Celtics: The Real Deal?

Of course, the immediate answer to the above question is YES!', but many have been too quick to label them an NBA title favorite. At 30-5, the Celtics have been rolling over opponents left and right and are now a 6/5 favorite to win the O'Brien Trophy in June. Doubts about the Big Three's willingness to share the ball and remain content have been toppled, Rajon Rondo continues to improve and Doc Rivers hasn't even sniffed an opportunity to mess things up. However, many questions have presented themselves about a Boston squad that might be peaking far too early

Can they beat the elites?

Better yet, how many elite teams have they played? Their 13.5 point average margin of victory is exceptional. Unimpressive is their opponents' .476 combined winning percentage. The Celtics have played 22 teams this year. Absent from that list are San Antonio, Dallas, New Orleans, Portland, Phoenix, Minnesota and the LA Clippers. Omit those last two and you have five of the top ten teams in the entire league. Victories against Orlando and Denver were home games and the only quality Western Conference opponent they've beaten on the road are the LA Lakers. A stretch of games in late March that includes home games against Utah, Phoenix and New Orleans and a trip through the Texas Triangle will give everyone a better idea of the Celtics' postseason chances against a Western Conference opponent. Their recent win over Detroit at The Palace of Auburn Hills goes a long way toward proving their worth as a legitimate Eastern Conference contender, but the road to the championship runs through the West.

Will the Big Three stay healthy?

Pierce is 30, Garnett is 31 and Allen is 32. Sometimes, when you're thirty-plus and you play in the NBA, you get hurt. When your team's best three players have all logged at least nine seasons in the league, there is significant cause for concern. Rivers' struggles last year were due in part to a stress fracture Pierce suffered in his left foot that caused the star to miss 35 games. Ray Allen missed a third of last season after having surgery on his chronically injured left ankle and has missed 61 games over the last four seasons. Garnett is a rock, but missed six games in each of his last two years with the Timberwolves. The Celtics might be able to weather another injury to Allen, whose role is less pronounced than the other two marquis players, but if either Pierce or Garnett go down in the playoffs, all will be lost.

Will Doc Rivers be able to lead this team through the playoffs?

Rivers was the laughingstock of the league last year, and now he's (seriously) being mentioned as a Coach of the Year candidate. Really? The same Doc Rivers who took an Orlando Magic team to a 3-1 lead over the Detroit Pistons in the first round of the 2003-04 playoffs, only to lose three straight games and the series? The same Doc Rivers who led the same squad the next season to 19 straight losses en route to a 21-61 finish? Last year, Rivers took heat for mismanaging a team that clearly underachieved in a weak conference. Let's face it, Doc Rivers is a decent coach who doesn't get his players' best effort on a consistent basis. Raising even more red flags is the glaring fact that he has never won a playoff series. How can he be expected to get this team to the NBA Finals, much less win it all?

Can their role players step up against hard-nosed teams like Detroit and San Antonio?

With a three to one assist-to-turnover ratio and shooting 49% from the field, Rajon Rondo is developing into a very productive point guard. Glen "Big Baby" Davis is also a nice surprise, effectively spelling Garnett with a 51% field goal percentage. Tony Allen and Eddie House are playing well, and Kendrick Perkins is starting to emerge as a viable statrter at center. However, House is the only one with any substantial playoff experience, and that's where they'll need to shine if Boston is to win its' 17th NBA Championship and first in over twenty years. Against Detroit last weekend, Rondo was held to one field goal and no assists. Davis scored 20 points and played extremely well against the smaller Tayshaun Prince and slower Antonio McDyess. He'll struggle to have similar success against the Pistons again, and will certainly falter against the likes of Duncan, Stoudemire or Boozer. In the playoffs, Boston will need guys like Davis and Rondo to play their best basketball. In the playoffs against Detroit and possibly San Antonio or Phoenix, they will need to play even better than that.

It's clear now who the best two teams in the East are and unless the upstart Orlando Magic have anything to say about it, a Detroit-Boston matchup in the conference finals is inevitable. When it truly matters, Detroit should get the edge. Despite the Celtics' considerable star power, there are simply too many lingering questions about their ability to win in the playoffs. The fact that they're the early favorites to win it all is mind-blowing to a healthy cynic like myself. When the Lakers Yankeed their way to the Finals in 2004, wasn't it these Pistons who dispatched them swiftly in five games? That's not to say the Celtics aren't a legitimate force to be reckoned with; they proved their worth wholeheartedly with their recent win in Detroit. But the players are new to each other, and if they advance to the conference or league finals, all of them will be treading in unchartered territory. If there's one thing that's certain in the NBA playoffs, experience and character are king, and the whole is often more than the sum of its' parts. Whether the Boston Celtics can achieve that kind of symmetry in the postseason remains to be seen.

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