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| No | 36% | 101 votes | Total: 277 votes | |
| Yes | 64% | 176 votes |
No
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Add to FavoritesThe cold war of the 20th century was a battle between the ideals of democracy and communism as realized by the United States and the United Soviet Socialist Republic. It is unlikely that we would return to a similar conflict between the east and west as evidenced by the United States' attitude towards China, which has become the new powerhouse communist country in the world. China has a track record of jailing journalists who speak out against the People's Republic of China, those who support dissenting political parties in general, and suspected terrorists without giving them due process and certainly without the legal rights the US accords its criminals. Despite these facts however, the economic ties between the US and china are as strong as ever. The primary concern of the US with regards to foreign policy seems to be monetary at the moment. China may be committing social injustices within its borders, however its imports are an essential part of the US economy and it is not a terrorist threat. Until China threatens the US, which does not seem likely, the US will most likely continue to turn a blind eye to China's communist regime. The US has proven with its actions in Iraq that under the current administration it is willing to invade foreign countries, overthrow their tyrannical leaders and create democracies, however only when it is to its economic advantage to do so. Even if an eastern country like China or Russia did somehow provoke the ire of the west, it does not seem likely that a build-up of military power, technology, and industry would occur in the same way that it did last century between the US and the USSR. That was a unique series of events that will most likely not be replicated again. For those reasons, a cold war between the east and west is highly unlikely in this day and age. If we were to see a harsh ideological conflict between the east and west arise, it would unfold in new and unique ways given how much the world has changed over the past thirty years. After all, everyone's mutually assured destruction is now guaranteed in the face of global warfare.
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Yes
The Cold War will not be repeated. Russia's oil and gas revenues flutuate and with the present decrease in prices Russia's power and influence waxes and presently wanes. The recent 10 year gas deal with Ukraine removes the uncertainty of supply to the West. Germany, the most powerful economy in the EU is pro-Russian.
Yes, the posturing of the Cold War has returned. However, the Russian federation population has been reduced to a mere 105 million - which means there are not enough young Russian recruits for the Russian army. Further, conscripts are refusing to fight in ethnic conflicts since the complete annihilation of Chechnya.
Russia used 1970s vintage Behr bombers to buzz Scotland in 2007. Russian military power has lost its prowess. Scotland is no threat to the Russian Federation.
American military power has been used to reorder the world. The idea of America using its power to promote changes of regime in nations ruled by dictators sounds ridiculous. But it is realistic. Regime change has occurred in Iraq. How unrealistic is it to work for the fall of the Communist party oligarchy in China following on from the far more powerful and stable oligarchy in the former Soviet Union?
Democratic change has swept the world with unprecedented success over the last 30 years. Are further victories possible?
The United States won the Cold War and thence pursued an expansive and aggressive global policy. Despite this approach, Iraq is chaotic and China has not collapsed, meanwhile Russia has recovered and is reusing the foreign policies of the former USSR. Essentially, the era of American dominance is yielding to the United States having to share power with China, Russia, India and the rest. America is overstretched in the Middle East contributing to a grouping of the rest against American power.
We now have a bipolar struggle reminding us of the Cold War. Competition between democratic and autocratic governments is now a feature of the 21st century modern world. China and Russia are the leading autocracies.
American hegemony is eroding but autocracy is not a consistent creed. China abandoned communism in favour of Chinese nationalism and rampant economic growth. Russia, unlike China, has an economy based on high global energy prices. Russia's population declines by 750,000 people per year. Russians associate democracy with corruption and the United States interfering in other countries affairs. Democracy does not appeal to Russians. The recent Russian deployment of aging Behr bombers (1980s) to buzz Scotland is unhelplful. Russia bullies Ukraine ,Estonia and Georgia with impunity. A proposed NATO missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic reminds Russia of their past dominance. Russia won the Second World War but it engaged in a losing struggle fro 1945 to 1989 when suddenly the USSR was rvealed to have an economy the size of Belgium's. The old USSR collapsed.
China and Russia represent experiments in authoritarian modernisation but they both suffer internal weaknesses. The 850 million dirt poor rural Chinese will impact on future Chinese growth.
The $3.5 trillion held in Chinese reserves threatens and unifies American and Chinese trade, investment and ideas. We are in this world together, for good or ill.
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