Is a Cold War between the East and the West on the verge of repeating itself?

Yes

1 of 13

by George Ivanov

• 

Write now Print Invite a writer™ Add to Favorites RSS Feed Contact this writer

Is the East-West cold war about to repeat itself?

On November 10, 1989, the world was witness to a remarkable event: the collapse of the Berlin Wall. For forty-five years, this wall was a symbol of a divided arena; the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics was the United States' ideological, military and territorial opponent. Borders were clearly defined, and each side was a match for the other. An armed conflict between the two nations would have been unthinkable if it had happened, it might have spelt the end of the human race altogether.

In the 21st century, a new Cold War between the East and the West is not a far-fetched prospect. With Russia's resurgence in recent years, the world balance of power is evening again. In Putin's domain, the economy is growing at a startling pace, mainly from the export of oil and gas to China and Europe. Wages are growing at double digit rates and people are experiencing more economic freedom and movement. With the increased spending, industry and research are also revitalized, and especially the Russian military sector. Exports are considerable, including tanks and military aircraft. Fifth generation fighters have been developed in the face of the Su-47 and MiG 1.44. On the international stage, Russia has entered in partnerships with India and China for the development of joint-venture fighter jets. Considering each exported aircraft sells for tens of millions, the industry can be said to be in an excellent condition.

Even more daringly, Russia has asserted its place as a dominant player on the world stage by the increased use of its military. Approximately two years ago, the Russian air force renewed patrols in the North Atlantic with its turbo-prop Tu-95 bombers. The objective of this is to challenge American dominance of the North Pacific by saying that there is another force there, capable of dealing with the Americans. Another example is the recent exercise in the North Atlantic by the Russian navy, in which warships from the Black Sea fleet participated as well. The exercise also placed the British Royal Air Force on edge, which had dispatched fighters of its own to monitor the Russians; a similar incident also occurred during the incursions of Tu-95's over the Northern European airspace. Back to the exercise, however, it represents one message Russia has interests to protect in the area of the Mediterranean, and this has been reflected in its desire to construct a naval base in Turkey for its potential Mediterranean fleet.

On the energy front, affairs are becoming increasingly heated. By last estimates, Russia provides approximately a third of the natural gas and oil that Europe requires to function normally on a day to day basis. In response to the diplomatic pressure that Russia can exert, as shown by the gas wars with Ukraine, the European Union decided to expend energy and resources towards the development of renewable resources. By 2020, approximately a fifth of Europe's energy needs to come from renewable sources.

The EU's initiative, however, has been soured repeatedly, and the most recent case is the project for a pipeline, dubbed South Stream, to pass from southern Russia, under the Black Sea, and into Bulgaria, where it splits off to supply the Western Balkans and Central Europe with natural gas. Bulgaria ratified the contract in January of 2008, thereby taking advantage of its own geographical position, and also challenging the EU's energy policy. The South Stream project has rendered Nabucco, the EU's own proposition in carrying natural gas from central Asia, in order to diversify its energy sources and avoid becoming dependent on Russian oil and gas, has been turned economically unfeasible. The other project for which there is much opposition in Europe, is the pipeline between Bourgas and Alexandropolis. Russia holds a majority stake in the pipe, while Bulgaria and Greece split the smaller stake equally amongst themselves. It will carry oil and supply tankers in the Aegean with cargo, destined for the rest of the world.

So far, we've seen the confrontation between East and West escalate both in military and economic means. In today's globalised world, a Cold War will be of a different nature. Instead of ideological confrontation, it will be entirely a battle of interests, economic and military, in a complex diplomatic tango between the superpowers, as the American one is entering a low period, and Russia is resurgent once again.

A final indication of the riled tone of conversation is Iran. In essence, the quarrel is because of Iran's nuclear program. Washington obtusely states that Tehran is pursuing nuclear weapons and financing terrorists in Iraq. On the other hand, the Persians insist that they are developing nuclear power for civil purposes only, but the twist of it is that they are doing it in collaboration with Russia. Iran is a member of OPEC, and one of the world's top exporters of oil. In another matter, Iran also controls the strait of Hormuz,where it is reputed that 40% of the world's tanker traffic passes.

Furthermore, Iran geographic position is also one of interest. Because of its proximity to India and Pakistan, both nuclear powers, and its neighbour Iraq, there are increasing charges that Ahmadinejad's government supports terrorist organizations. This author cannot ascertain the validity of those accusations, but if they are true, they would be in Iran's interest, because keeping the US military spread out reduces its effectiveness and is a drain of resources for America. The effect is a weak Iraqi state, which paves an opening for Iran to become a regional power, with Russian support. In terms of territory, population and economic power, Iran is well disposed to achieve that status, and it is in conflict with the United States interest.

Collaboration with Russia also means that Iran is capable of expanding its own economic and military base. Plans exist for the construction of more nuclear power stations, that will run with Russian technology. Also, the Russian armament industry has also sold to Iran equipment, varying from anti-aircraft artillery, to aircraft. The greater interest of the Russians is to impose a bi-polar model of peace in the Middle East, much reminiscent of the US-USSR standoff, by making Iran a counter-balance to Israel.

Currently, Israel enjoys an annual grant of several billion dollars from the United States. Recently, the United States also announced a 30-billion dollar programme to revamp Israel's armed forces. It can be safely said that Israel's Arab neighbours do not quite have the same military capability as the Jewish state. Even if the Russian technology sold to them through the years is capable of opposing Israeli forces, it is not enough, nor are its operators trained enough to use it effectively, as shown by the numerous conflicts since 1948 and Israel's dominance in all of them.

Countering Israel is also important, because there are concerns over its nuclear arsenal. Even if the country maintains a policy of uncertainty about its nuclear capabilities, there is a good chance that they exist, given the close collaboration between Israel and the United States. In the 1980's, Israel attacked and destroyed Iraq's only ever attempted construction of a nuclear reactor, and again proved its conventional military dominance in the region, to which it does not hesitate to resort. Attacking Iran, however, would be a whole different matter, because the Iranian forces are much larger and better equipped than their Iraqi counterparts. From the navy, to the land, air, and missile forces, Iran presents a much more formidable foe, and if engaged, the attacked is bound to suffer heavy losses.

The proof is in the fact that Iran has lately developed two fighters of its own design that are said to be able to outperform the F/A-18, one of the predominant fighters in the American air force. Rumour also has it, it is based off the F-14, which the Untied States supplied to Iran in the 1970's. Furthermore, Iran has also developed missiles, capable of carrying conventional and nuclear armaments, and has the ability to transport them to their targets. The military developments of Iran signal that the country is not one to be taken lightly, and that any engagement would be dealt with severely. This position accordingly gives rise to more intense diplomatic approaches.

In conclusion, the twenty-first century will see a restoration of a balance of power and an end to the hegemony America experienced after the end of the first Cold War. Even without ideological confrontation, economic and geopolitical interests will lie in the dealings between countries in this century. Europe is unsuccessfully trying to balance Russian energy dependency, while the latter is enjoying a resurgent position on the world stage, being able to dictate the terms with other political entities. The increase in Russia's military innovation and production capacity, including its collaboration with India and China, has lead to the establishment of further dominance in world affairs. Lastly, Russia's support of Iran, both economic and military, has helped create a balance to America and Israel in the Middle East, which is an important attempt at peace, given the boiling cauldron that is the region. Overall, another Cold War is quite possibly coming, but how it will unfold, only time will tell.

Learn more about this author, George Ivanov.
Click here to send this author comments or questions.