Does Ron Paul have a chance in the Republican primaries?

Yes

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by Robert C. Sage

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Ron Paul has legions of devoted supporters who are active on the internet and show up in straw pole meetings across the country. He raised $5 million in campaign contributions during the last quarter, putting him in the lower ranks of the serious contenders. It is impressive that these have been many small donors. He has a long and consistent record of libertarian conservative positions. He is so principled that he has opted out of the pension plan for Congressmen.

None of the leading Republican candidates are considered to truly represent the right-wing, the traditional source of devoted grassroots efforts among Republicans. The mainstream leader, Rudy Guiliani, supports abortion rights and has a history of supporting rights for homosexual, both anathema for most conservatives. Mitt Romney has flip flopped on abortion and other social issues. John McCain has long been considered a maverick, despite his strong support for the war in Iraq. Fred Thompson has been more active in Hollywood than in politics in recent years.

If Ron Paul can break into the top three in any of the early primaries, he could get the mainstream press coverage that has held his campaign back. He has won most of the straw polls held so far and by extremely lop-sided margins. He inspires extreme devotion, because his stands are so principled. He does not seem to set positions based on polls, but rather based on the Constitution. It is easy to understand how he would excite people who are fed up with the traditional political system. However, the Republican party has not been known for inspiring fanatical support from untraditional sources, the young, the old and disaffected activists. In that sense, his candidacy is contrarian. It seeks to remake the Republican party by activism.

However, the early small primaries are known for independent-minded voters and surprises. If Ron Paul enthusiasts register many new republicans and many of the traditional republicans stay home or split votes, things could get unpredictable. Giuliani is not viewed as a traditional republican and if moderate republicans became disillusioned with him, Ron Paul could benefit.

Already, Ron Paul has done better than pundits expected, but he still does not get double digit support in national polls. In order for him to have a realistic chance, Ron Paul must find a way to break out from the group of second tier republicans. He needs to find ways to convert the groundswell of support on the internet and in straw polls to the vote box. The mainstream media considers it to be an anomaly that Paul does so well on internet polls and straw polls. He should look for an early primary where he believes that he has a chance for making it into the top three and dedicate resources there. Paul's positions on issues is often unconventional, if compatible with traditional paleo-conservative perspectives.

If Paul is unable to break out during the republican primaries, he could choose to run as an independent, as he once did with the Libertarian Party. He could garner significant cross-over support, as there are many Americans who don't trust either major party. It is extremely unlikely that an independent could win as such, but he could be a spoiler, as many believe Ross Perot was. He could pull support from both parties, but it would be an extreme long-shot. If he could get the republican nomination, he would stand a strong chance against Hillary, because his Iraq War position of an early withdrawal is favored by most Americans. She is beholden to many large donors, but he is not.

What is ironic is that Ron Paul has garnered more enthusiasm and support from the anti-war crowd than either Dennis Kucinich or Mike Gravel, but most republicans still support the war. Paul is trying to swim upstream, so he is by definition, a long shot. However, our nation has a long history of surprises in the early primaries which reorder the field of candidates. If Paul can achieve a top three closing in Iowa or New Hampshire, he could get hot. If he does not garner above 10% somewhere in an early primary, he will likely remain the internet/straw poll champion and be limited to affecting the campaign from the sidelines.

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