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| Abbas | 22% | 19 votes | Total: 86 votes | |
| New leader | 78% | 67 votes |
Abbas
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Add to FavoritesThe real question is whether Israel really wants peace with the Palestinians. Repeatedly, there have been opportunities for a comprehensive, final peace agreement, but each time the Israelis make last-minute objections. Certainly, Hamas and Islamic Jihad would also need to recognize Israel's right to exist, but so too much Israel recognize Palestine's right to exist. Hamas has let it be known that it would make such an agreement, but only when Israel reciprocates. Israel wants to have assurances in advance, which would give Israel an unfair advantage in negotiations.
Mahmoud Abbas is one of the original founders of Fatah, along with Yaser Arafat and he has been among its leadership from early on. Abbas went to college in Damascus, studied law in Egypt and got his PhD in Oriental Studies (Dissertation: "The Secret Connection between the Nazis and the Leaders of the Zionist Movement"). Abbas has long been a proponent of negotiated settlement with the Israelis. He played a key role in the 1993 Oslo Peace Accord. He is viewed as a pragmatist. He was prime minister in 2003. Then, on January 9, 2005 he won election as President with 62%. Relations with Hamas have often been strained.
A power sharing arrangement was negotiated, as Hamas won the parliamentary elections on 1/25/06. On 3/17/2007, a Palestinian government of National Unity was created with Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas as Prime Minister. When Hamas used violence to take military control of the Gaza Strip, Abbas dismissed Haniyeh and appointed Salam Fayyad as emergency Prime Minister in June. The Palestinian Basic Law requires the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) to approve of a new P.M. and for the outgoing P.M. to exercise authority until that happens, so Hamas rejects Fayyad's appointment.
The result is a stalemate, in which Hamas controls Gaza and Fatah controls the West Bank. Europe and the US resumed aid to Abbas' government. The next Palestinian General Elections will be in 2010, unless Hamas and Fatah agree to hold them earlier.
Abbas has decreed that in the next election, the PLC will be entirely proportional to the election, although the Basic Law states that half are constituency based. Abbas says if the PLC convenes, it can endorse or reject his decree. Hamas calls the electoral law change illegal.
Meanwhile, Abbas is holding biweekly talks with Israeli P.M. Olmert in which they discuss "everything". They appear to be making progress on final status talks in advance of an International Peace Conference scheduled by the US for November and meetings of the Middle East Quartet (US, Europe, Russia and UN) with the Arab League in December, 2007.
Both Hamas and Fatah are acting unilaterally. It is possible that Abbas will negotiate a proposal for final status issues and submit it as a referendum to the Palestinian people. As Fatah controls the West Bank, he can ensure that it gets voted on there. However, because Hamas controls Gaza, it is entirely possible that it will not allow such a referendum to be voted upon, unless it agrees to its content. Thus, Abbas must negotiate in anticipation of what would be acceptable to Hamas. If Hamas refuses to allow the referendum in Gaza it is possible that a peace agreement would be concluded between Israel and the West Bank Palestinians.
In that event, either the Gaza Palestinians with Hamas could be sidelined to watch their West Bank brethern be showered with economic development funding from Europe and the US or an international force (or Israel) could invade Gaza and try to forcibly cause the Gaza Palestinians to vote on the referendum.
The most likely scenario would have Hamas allowing the referendum to be voted on in Gaza, because otherwise Hamas would look bad to the Gaza Palestinians. However, Hamas could allow the vote, but actively campaign against it. Thus, the referendum could pass in the West Bank (population 3.2 million), be rejected in Gaza (population 1.2 million) and still pass overall. However, Hamas has said that it would accept a peace agreement if it was approved by the Palestinians.
Failure to do so, would alienate Hamas from the majority of Palestinians and put them in defiance and in open rebellion against the will of the Palestinian people. That seems very unlikely. Thus, Abbas is taking the long view on regaining full control of the Palestinian government in order to avoid full civil war with Hamas. In the end, it all depends on Israel agreeing to peace on terms that Palestinians can accept and Abbas knows better than anyone else what that must include. Abbas can deliver the referendum, if Israel is willing to make peace.
Learn more about this author, Robert C. Sage.
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New leader
by Henri Zimand
As much as i would like Mahmoud Abbas to run the Palestinian government , he has unfortunately shown lack of strength during this whole time. Strength is what can unite the whole Palestinians.
When you look at history only strong leaders were able to keep countries of different ethnics backgrounds together and the best example is Tito. Tito was able to keep Yugoslavia united as one happy country all the years he was in power and no real problems occurred there. Once he passed away , the whole system collapsed and the different factions started fighting each other until it became a real disaster and a massacre . Even though after world war II the whole world swore NEVER AGAIN , that was forgotten already by all.
In the case of the Palestinians , there are many dates that are important , what has been promised to them and what was done. Around 1948 , the Arabs told the Palestinians , leave your houses and Israel , we shall conquer the land and you will be able to go back to your houses. Unfortunately it did not happen this way and several camps were created where the Palestinians that were at the time few in numbers were not taken in by any Arab countries but left on their own to rotten in poor conditions.
Arafat came along and he used terrorist methods to attack Israel, somehow at a certain time the world decided including the Arab world the Palestinians by sending high amounts of money. Unfortunately like many such countries or people in the world the leaders decided to enrich themselves and take the money into their pockets instead of building an infrastructure for their people that would allow them to live well and make money.
In the 1988-1990 while the Arabs lived and worked in Israel they were making at the time over a thousand dollar net salaries which was incredible and made them very happy. Unfortunately a small percentage of extremists decided they did not want things like this and went during the day into the houses of the people working in Israel and warned the wifes that they and their children would be endangered and killed if their husbands would continue working in Israel . Naturally immediately this raised concerns but nothing was done by the population against these few terrorists.
So the Palestinians remained poor and even poorer the only way the leaders could convince them to do what they really wanted them to do. After Arafat passed away Mahmoud Abbas was elected as leader , and he wanted to do peace with Israel . That is when a new faction grew called Hamas , if you go to You tube and put in Hamas and massacres , you will see how the Palestinian people have been degraded and abused by the Hamas even only for singing at a wedding . I have seen these tapes made by Palestinians and Arabs and still the world closes the eyes on that, but screams at Israel that after ten thousand rockets over 8 years attacks the Hamas for several reasons.
I beleive that Mahmoud Abbas will be given a chance , but i believe a stronger person will have to be choosen to keep all the factions into one and this will allow the peace process to move forward and it will be done.
Learn more about this author, Henri Zimand.
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