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Does volatility in the stock market signal economic growth or decline?

Results so far:

Growth
31% 23 votes Total: 75 votes
Decline
69% 52 votes
Growth

Ultimately, volatility in the stock market signals growth. It reflects investors sorting out which entities are economically weak or unviable and which are strong and poised for growth.

If the stock market only declined, the case could be made that growth, too, was only declining. (Options betting against growth, of course, distort the market and therefore some sort of regulation will be needed to curb these excesses.)

Growth opportunities are abundant and wise investors effectively sort the wheat from the chaff and take their money out of bad investments and put it into those ventures where growth is occurring.

But, the process has been grueling and, yes, volatile.

A year ago today, January 22, 2008, the New York Times reported "World Markets Plunge on Fears of U.S. Slowdown." India's Sensex index had experienced their second-worst day ever. Japan's Nikkei 225 Index had plunged 3% and Brazilian stocks were off 6.6%. As the National Bureau of Economic Research reported last month, the markets were right to fear, as our recession had officially started in December 2007.

Smart realtors knew even further back in the summer of 2006 the U.S. housing market was declining in value. By the summer of 2007, the markets experienced their first jolt in response to the coming crisis sparked by loss of housing values in combination with complex securities, opaquely imbedded with "toxic" mortgages, and derivatives that ironically were supposed to be a hedge against these bad bets.

But, we are still not anywhere near the loss of housing values that occurred in the deep recession of 1982. Yet, our financial system continues to suffer the fallout as investor confidence is still badly shaken. Meanwhile governments worldwide continue to work to stabilize the financial system and restore confidence. But, it's a process that will take time and hopefully they won't over-prescribe and make the patient sicker! And, yes, in the meantime, lots of people have and will continue to lose lots of money on those bad investments.

But the key is to look forward not backward and invest in companies poised for growth.

In this regard, digitization of the health care market is an obvious good bet because introducing efficiencies into this sector that gobbles up an increasingly bigger share of GDP, now well over a quarter, will pay big dividends.

Energy is another obvious sector that is poised for growth. Efforts to produce renewable and alternative sources of energy, which target twin environmental and security challenges vis-vis health and quality of life and energy independence, respectively will reap huge economic benefits.

Learn more about this author, Mary Claire Kendall.
Contact this writer Click here to send this author comments or questions.

Decline

Volatility in the stock market in my opinion is a sign of economic decline. When the economy is booming and everybody's getting jobs and going to work the stock market skyrockets, with only some shakiness occurring after rapid climbs in market prices.

While the government keeps coming up with how green the grass is in our economy on the news, more and more jobs are being pumped out of the country, businesses are floundering because the Americans used to buy their products are now out of work, and the banks have been in the news more than once this year for being in trouble because of bad loans and foreclosures. It's not because they made bad choices and giving loans, it's because Americans who made good money working for companies to paid well, have been put out of work and the job market is slim to none.

The volatility in the stock market is a direct reflection of this problem. The Fed comes out and lowers the interest rates, this boosts everybody's enthusiasm in the stock market climbs. The government comes out with the latest report of how good the economy is doing, even though much of what they base this on is only part of the information, and the stock market jumps again. The problem is the working people of this country cannot buy the products they use to because the jobs aren't there, therefore between every piece of good news that the government pumps out, the stock market flounders.

In case your someone who believes everything you hear on the news, and believe that our leaders are telling you the truth, do a little thinking for yourself. When President George Bush the first was in office, and right before the election of Bill Clinton, he wrote a bill called NAFTA, which was to open trading between the North American continent's Mexico America and Canada without import tax, under the guise of helping to boost the economy of our neighbors. When Clinton got in office, he signed George Bush's NAFTA agreement, showing that both Republicans and Democrats are in reality two sides of the same coin. As a result of NAFTA, we've seen an RCA pack up their company and move to Mexico where they can hire $.50 per hour labor, and put their $10-$15 and our employees out of work. These employees no longer have the income to buy the products that are manufactured by American companies in America. Because they cannot purchase the American companies products, the American companies sales decline. This decline reduces the need for Americans to produce, ship, and sells products. As a result, those companies in looking how to increase their profit margin pack up and move their companies to another country where they can hire cheap labor and ship the product across the border without the penalty of import tax. This puts more Americans out of work, and those Americans don't buy the products of other companies who are still here.

It doesn't take a genius to see how this snow ball is rolling down hill. If you and I can see the economic process in action, do you really think the leaders of this country don't see it? In fact, to further prove that Republicans and Democrats are two sides of the same coin, President George Bush Jr. has pushed the bill CAFTA, which stands for the Central American free trade agreement, which further undermines the American economy which was built on American productivity.

Unfortu nately the CEOs of big American business are very nearsighted. They don't seem to realize that the buyers of their American cars, the buyers of the computers, the buyers of big-screen plasma and LCD TVs, are the Americans who Worked for those companies, and their big incomes afford them the luxury of buying the products companies put out. With the Americans out of work, and $.50 foreign labor getting a paycheck from the companies, who can buy those big-ticket items that were the pulse and heartbeat of the big businesses as well as the American economy? These same CEOs who are looking to increase their profits and make a quick buck now, are the shame of American industrialism and their names will stink after the collapse of their companies, and ultimately the American economy.

Anyone with the smallest amount of economic sense understands that the economy of the country depends on the jobs of the people, the companies for whom they work, and the balance of cash flow. Knowing our country is ran by a host of economic experts, one can only conclude that the economic decline we are seeing, must be being deliberately orchestrated.

As complacent as we are as a society, and despite the pretty picture our leaders try to portray any of our economy, the stock market is the backbone of our economy. And as the economy collapses so does the backbone, and this is the volatility that we see.

Learn more about this author, Dan Dunkin.
Contact this writer Click here to send this author comments or questions.

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